Seeing real estate trends in Sacramento (you pick the neighborhood)

Let’s look at some specific neighborhoods today in Sacramento. How is the real estate market evolving in each of these areas? In this post I plan to include 10 graphs, but the fun part is YOU CHOOSE which ones I make.

HOW IT WORKS: Email me a request to graph a specific neighborhood or area. I’ll then make a graph like the ones below and post it here over the next few days. Keep checking back. You can use the graph as personal research, for a listing presentation or post online as you see fit. I’ll need three things:

  1. Name: Location or name of neighborhood (in Sacramento, Placer or Yolo).
  2. Time: How many years of sales do you want on the graph (1 to 5 years)?
  3. Other: Do you want to see all sales? Or would you like to refine data to see a certain square footage range, bedroom count, etc…?

Send me a quick email? Seriously. ryan@lundquistcompany.com

NOTE: I have all graphs in larger sizes if you need them. Just email me.

1) Antelope: Here all all sales over the past 5 years in Antelope per request of Scott. Isn’t it interesting to see how the market has moved? Bottomed out in early 2012, massive appreciation and then leveling off.

All Antelope Sales - 530

2) Days on Market for Antelope Sales: How long have sales in Antelope spent on the market? Here are all sales. A chart of average number of days on market each month or quarter would be great, but maybe in a different post.

days on market for all sales in Antelope in MLS - 530

3) Midtown/Downtown: Per request in a comment below, here are all sales in Midtown/Downtown from 0-2 bedrooms and under 1000 sq ft. This graph only includes single family sales – NOT condos. What do you see?

Midtown Downtown Sales in Sacramento - SFR Detached Only - NOT Condos

4) Elk Grove: Per request of Bruce, here are all sales between Bruceville, Franklin, Bilby and Elk Grove Blvd. This is the 95757 zip code. Any thoughts?

Elk Grove Market Trends - by Sacramento Appraisal Blog - 530

5) Arden Manor: Per request of Cass, here are all 3-Bed / 1-Bath sales in Arden Manor (located off Watt Avenue in Sacramento in case you are not familiar).

Arden Manor Sales - by Sacramento Appraisal Blog - 530

6) Carmichael: Per request of Susan, here are all 3-4 bedroom sales in Carmichael over the past five years. I took the liberty to include only sales under $1,000,000 because there were only a handful above that level (and including them made the graph less legible). It would be interesting to see a precise square footage range in Carmichael as a follow-up to this graph.

carmichael sales 3-4 bedrooms - 530

7) Natomas: Here are all sales in the 95835 zip code for houses at 3200 sq ft or larger (hope you like this one John).

Natomas 95835 Sales - 3200 sq ft and larger - 530

8) Elk Grove: This is a graph of all sales in Elk Grove under $400,000 with 3-4 bedrooms, 1500-3000 sq ft of living area and properties built between 1997 to 2007. Hope you like it Gary.

Elk Grove Market Data - 530

9) Condos in City of Sacramento: This pie graph helps shows all condo sales in the City of Sacramento from 2010 to 2014 – and it really says something about the market, doesn’t it? Being that many condo complexes have too many rentals, pending litigation or some other issue that is a turn-off for financing, there has been a very high percentage of cash purchases. Note this is the City of Sacramento and NOT the entire county. Hope you enjoy this one Barbara.

condo sales in city of sacramento

10) Laguna West in Elk Grove: Here are all sales with a gross living area between 2400-3000 and with no pool in the Laguna West neighborhood over the past three years. Hope you like this one Doug.

Laguna West Sales - 2400-3000 GLA - no pool - 530

Examples for Blog Post:

1479 model in Mather

Mather: This graphs shows all 1479 model sales in Mather over the past five years. I appraised a model recently that was priced beyond the highest recent sale. It was out of sync with the market.

Gold River Station Sales

Gold River Station: It’s easy to confuse Gold River Station with Gold River, but they are two different areas. Gold River Station is located just north of Highway 50 and immediately south of the Gold River HOA. Gold River Station is not a part of Gold River, which is important to consider when choosing comparable sales.

Any thoughts, insight or questions?

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Seeing the reality of Blackstone’s mass purchases

It’s one thing to hear about investors purchasing so many properties in Sacramento, but let’s see it. Even if you’ve only been following real estate casually, you’ve likely heard the private equity fund Blackstone has picked up well over 1000 properties in the Sacramento area since last August. No, that’s not a typo.

Let’s look at a few areas of Sacramento to visualize some of the neighborhoods where Blackstone has been most active. Each red label below represents a property that is owned by Blackstone. The bulk of these sales were purchased since last August, but there are still quite a few that have been owned for years.

Properties owned by Blackstone in Natomas

Blackstone has been purchasing as “IH2 Property West” and “THR California”. They’ve had a strong presence in Natomas as you can see – especially in older Natomas. It is important to note the information above is based on Tax Records alone and could very easily not include MANY other purchases that did not end up listed in Tax Records.

Properties owned by Blackstone in Rancho Cordova

There have also been quite a few purchases by Blackstone in Rancho Cordova. Most of the sales are in the 95670 zip code, while only a small amount have been located in the 95742 zip code.

Properties owned by Blackstone in Rosement and College Glen

There are also a decent number of Blackstone properties in Rosemont and a few sprinkled through College Glen and La Riviera. Neighborhoods that are ripe for first-time owners have typically been the primary target of this investment fund.

Properties owned by Blackstone in South Sacramento

Last but not least, here are Blackstone-owned properties in South Sacramento. This market has been a very affordable area under $200,000, which has been a sought after target price for the investment fund. By the way, Deutsche Bank just gave Blackstone 1.5 billion in additional credit over the past week (on top of their initial 2.1 billion credit line to purchase properties). We’ll see if any of the money finds it’s way into the local market.

Video interview with Blackstone from Bloomberg (worth a watch):

Questions: How do these images stir you? Or what do they make you think of? If you are renting from THR / IH2, what has it been like to rent from them so far? Any stories to share?

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A break in arena property taxes this year for the Maloofs

If you think your property tax bill is high in Sacramento County, take a look at the amount paid out each year by Maloof Sports & Entertainment for Power Balance Pavillion (formerly Arco Arena). More than just the numbers, what do you make up such a steep decline in property taxes over the past year? How does that impact the City of Sacramento?

There are actually five separate parcels for the arena in Natomas, but the above graph only considers 1 Sports Pkwy since it is the largest and most heavily taxed parcel (it’s the parcel that includes the arena). The other four parcels really only added up to just over $430,000 in assessed value for 2010, which is about $6,500 in property taxes.

Breakdown of assessed value and property taxes for 1 Sports Parkway
2011 assessed value: $29,129,000 ($450,000 in property taxes – estimate)
2010 assessed value: $56,534,445 ($881,208 in property taxes)
2009 assessed value: $58,844,792 ($904,003 in property taxes)
2008 assessed value: $59,595,796 ($940,690.94 in property taxes)

It might seem surprising to see such a low assessed value for an entire arena, but keep in mind the original stadium was constructed for about $40 million in 1987 (Wikipedia states today’s costs would be $74.3 million).

What do you think of the numbers above? How much of a role does the arena play in the health of our local economy?

FYI: Property taxes for 2011 were posted yesterday by the Sacramento County Assessor. I strongly recommend all property owners to look over their assessed value closely (click this link) to make sure you are paying your fair share of taxes – and no more. If you have any questions about the tax appeal process or would like my tax appeal company to look up your property for free, please click here.

UPDATED POST: If you’re visiting from the Forbes article that mentioned this post, you can also see an updated version of this post here for 2012.

If you have any questions, or real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs in the Greater Sacramento Region, contact Lundquist Appraisal by phone 916-595-3735, email, Facebook or subscribe to posts by email.

Could Mandatory Flood Insurance in the Natomas Area of Sacramento Impact the Market?

On December 8, 2008, flood insurance became mandatory for the Natomas Area of Sacramento. Since the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers determined that the Natomas area was at a greater risk for flooding because of a weakening levy system, the area was rezoned and homeowners are now forking out greenbacks for flood insurance.  

It will be interesting to see how the Natomas situation plays out and to see if there is much of an effect on the real estate market. What are your thoughts? Any home owners, agents, or other real estate professionals want to pitch in here? Do you think buyers care about flood insurance? Do some buyers avoid Natomas to not pay for this insurance? Or is it no real biggie?

fema1

I have not conducted an exhaustive study on the matter and so I won’t speak to any real effect, but I will say that when certain changes take place, such as economic, governmental, or zoning changes, there could be an impact on the local market. As an appraiser, this highlights for me how important it is to have “geographical competency” and really know what is going on in the market – especially the changes.   

Eastern Natomas Trend Graph: Below is a 12-month trend graph of a portion of Eastern Natomas with blue dots representing “sales” and red dots representing “listings”. The graph data is bound on the North by Elkhorn Blvd., West by I-5, East by Vacant Land, & South by Del Paso Road.

natomas-park-sales-and-listings-2