If a client asked you how to know when a real estate market is increasing in value, what would you say? Prices going up is the first and obvious answer, but what else? There are a number of different metrics to watch, and the image below helps hit on some of the main issues. Anything else you’d add?
Markets tend to change over time rather than in an instant, so it’s important to know which metrics to watch. It’s also helpful to listen to what buyers are saying. After all, there is something about consumer confidence and the mood among buyers that cannot always be captured in one neat little metric. The other big question we must ask is: Why are values increasing? Remember that an increase in housing supply or interest rates can change the direction of the market in a heartbeat too (especially after the Spring seasonal market fades). This is why it’s also important to know the signs of a softening market.
How to Think Like an Appraiser: I’m excited to be teaching a class in a couple days at the Sacramento Association of Realtors. The class is called “How to think like an appraiser”, and we’ll hit on how to choose comps, how to make adjustments, and tips for working with appraisers. This will be very practical, and we’ll have many case studies to talk through in the class. See the image and register online here.
Question: What other signs do you watch to know if the market is increasing?
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The market ripened early this year. Buyers have simply been ready before sellers. On one hand listings and sales have been at fairly normal levels for the first two months of the year, so we can say the market is normal in that regard. But buyer demand really took off last month as pendings in the regional market were up by almost 30% compared to last February. This is the part that is not normal, and why we can say the Spring market ripened early.
One Paragraph to Explain the Market: Well-priced listings are going quickly and experiencing multiple offers, but otherwise properties are sitting on the market if they are not priced correctly. Buyers have been anxious to get into contract, but at the same time they seem to be showing discretion by not readily pulling the trigger on homes with adverse locations or issues. This has led to a sense of many current listings feeling like leftovers since they’ve been well vetted like thrift store clothing. The good news is we are reaching the time of year where more listings should be hitting the market to help alleviate the pressure of a lack of good inventory. Lastly, it took a few less days to sell last month, inventory decreased, and the sales to original list price ratio increased (all normal in Spring).
NOTE: I am posting once a week now, and this means my big monthly post will have less text, but a few more graphs (Placer, Sacramento County, & Regional Market).
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SACRAMENTO COUNTY:
PLACER COUNTY:
SACRAMENTO REGION (Sac, Placer, Yolo, El Dorado):
Questions: What is driving buyers to get into contract? Is it low rates? Is it a sense of needing to get in a home before values rise too quickly? What do you think?
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