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2013 real estate market

A recap of Placer County real estate in 2013

February 10, 2014 By Ryan Lundquist 2 Comments

I was pleasantly surprised how popular my Sacramento market recap graphic was last week, so I thought I’d share a Placer County image – especially since I had a few requests for one. The market in Placer County was similar to Sacramento in that it was a year of massive increases where real estate felt like it was on steroids.

A Market Facts Download: You can save the image below or click the graphic for a larger file to re-size to your liking (or DOWNLOAD a PDF). Feel free to use the image on your blog, Facebook or wherever. You can link back to me if you wish.

Placer-County-2013-Real-Estate-Recap-530

By the way, here are two pictures from last Friday’s speaking gig at the Masters Club Roundtables event at Sacramento Association of REALTORS. It was a fun time and so good to see familiar faces and meet new people. I’ll actually be giving the same presentation on Thursday at 11am for the Sacramento Realtist Association meeting. I’m not sure if the meeting is open to the public or not, but I can find out if anyone wants to attend.

masters club presentation

masters club presentation 3

Here are some of the slides from my presentation. See below or on Slideshare.

Question: What stands out to you about the graphic above? Does anything surprise you? Feel free to comment below.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: 2013 real estate market, Home Appraiser, house appraisers, Placer County real estate, Placer County real estate trends, Placer market recap, Sacramento Real Estate

10 quick Sacramento real estate stats to make you sound smart

January 15, 2014 By Ryan Lundquist 1 Comment

top-10If you want to sound smart while talking to clients, friends or playing the real estate category on Jeopardy, this is for you. Here are ten quick stats for the real estate market in Sacramento County when considering all of 2013. Enjoy.

  1. The median sales price increased by 25% in 2013.
  2. Average price per square foot rose 24% this year.
  3. Foreclosures decreased by 6.5% in 2013.
  4. Short sales declined by almost 18% over the year.
  5. Interest rates went up over 1% in 2013.
  6. 28% of all sales in 2013 were cash purchases.
  7. FHA buyers increased by about 4% in 2013 in the entire county.
  8. FHA buyers under $200,000 increased by almost 7.5% in 2013.
  9. Cash sales declined by roughly 15% from the beginning of the year.
  10. Half of all sales under $200,000 were cash for half the year.

Question: What stat stands out to you most? Comments are welcome below.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: 2013 real estate market, 2013 recap, Home Appraiser, House Appraiser, real estate trends, Sacramento County Real Estate

Kissing the real estate honeymoon goodbye

January 8, 2014 By Ryan Lundquist 11 Comments

honeymoon in real estateThe honeymoon is over. That’s right. The real estate market in 2013 felt like a honeymoon because it was full of glittery optimism, sensational news headlines and the sweet aroma of a quick recovery. Just as a honeymoon in real life comes to an end, we all knew such rapid appreciation was not sustainable, inventory could not be that low forever and interest rates wouldn’t endlessly hover at historically low levels either. Of course this doesn’t mean the market is not still ripe for positive growth, but only that this year probably won’t feel as good as last year.

The Sacramento real estate market in 2013 was really driven in large part by massive amounts of cash buyers, abnormally low inventory and ridiculously low interest rates. Now that housing inventory and interest rates are beginning to increase, and investors are backing off, I expect the market in 2014 will be much slower and more sensitive to the local economy (so long as these trends persist and the government does not interfere).

Trends in 30 seconds or 3 minutes: Let’s take a look at some trends to get a visual picture of where we have been. You can probably scan these in 30 seconds or take a few minutes to digest them. Your call. Sacramento market trends - graph by Sacramento real estate appraiserHousing inventory decreased last month below 2 months of supply, which is understandable in light of the holidays and colder weather. Otherwise inventory has been flirting with 2.5 months. I said above that the real estate “honeymoon” is over, but keep in mind inventory is still very low, which means there is still room for some growth ahead (though I do not believe we will see the same rapid appreciation like we did last year since the market is different this time around in terms of inventory, interest rates and cash investors). The median price in December saw a slight uptick from November, but overall is still hovering around the $250,000 range as it has been for about six months. Can you see why people are saying the market is flat?Sacramento market trends - graph by Sacramento home appraiserHere is a broader picture of median price and inventory. Current values are tending to resemble values in both 2003 and 2007/2008.

Sacramento market trends numbe rof houses sold since 2008 - graph by Sacramento home appraiserSales were sparse for the second month in a row as there were only 1217 single family detached sales in Sacramento County in December. It is normal in colder months to see less sales.

Sacramento market trends unemployment and median price - graph by Sacramento home appraiser

Sacramento market trends unemployment and median price since 2008 - graph by Sacramento home appraiserThe jobless rate is thankfully going down in Sacramento County, but 8.1% is still not a pretty statistic. Can I be a resounding gong by saying we need more JOBS, JOBS & JOBS?

sacramento real estate trends - by sacramento home appraiser - 3

Here are a few important metrics on one graph. I’ll share some different versions of this graph in coming days. I like this one because it’s a reminder of how the market works. Real estate is not just about supply and demand, but a whole host of layers working together.

Cash Sales in Sacramento County - graph by Sacramento home appraiser

Cash FHA Sales in Sacramento County - graph by Sacramento home appraiser

Cash & FHA Sales under 200K in Sacramento County - graph by Sacramento home appraiser

Overall cash sales have continued to decline while FHA sales have increased. In fact, there are now more FHA sales than cash sales in Sacramento County, which hasn’t happened in almost two years. At this time last year there were multiple offers on every single property, but these days that is becoming less common. The market is ultimately normalizing as inventory increases, which is leading to buyers generally having more power to negotiate. It is still a Seller’s market, but buyers are gaining ground.

Foreclosures and Short Sales in Sacramento County - graph by Sacramento house appraiser

Foreclosures have basically hit the bottom and short sales have persisted to decline too. There has been a 1% increase in foreclosures over the past quarter. At the same time it’s also important to realize inventory and the number of sales have been really low (which can skew stats).

The Final Word: The glorious “honeymoon” of 2013 may be over, but most analysts are still projecting mild appreciation in 2014. Moreover, the Sacramento market is still in a place where there is pent-up demand, so there is still room for growth. All indicators point toward a less-rapid market this year since the fundamentals seem to be poised to deliver just that. However, anything can happen. If inventory was still at one month or dropped that low again, this would be a different post. On a related note, I still think what Blackstone and other investors do is an X-factor. If they decide to ramp up their efforts and buy a few thousand local properties again, we should get ready for a second “honeymoon” in 2014.

Question: Any thoughts, insight or stories to share? I’d love to hear your take.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: 2013 real estate market, 2014 real estate market, cash investors, Home Appraiser, House Appraiser, investors in Sacramento, Median Price, real estate graphs, Sacramento Real Estate Market, trends, Unemployment

What 12 Realtors are Saying About Sacramento’s Housing Market

December 19, 2013 By Ryan Lundquist 11 Comments

What do you get when you ask 12 Realtors one question? I know it sounds like I’m setting you up for a lame joke, but I’m actually going to share some insider perspective on the local housing market. I asked a handful of Sacramento area Realtors to describe the market in just a few sentences. This is first-hand insight straight from the trenches, and I hope it helps paint a picture of how the market unfolded in 2013 and what is happening right now. Enjoy.

Any thoughts? How would you describe the housing market right now?

sacramento real estate market in 2013 - image by sacramento appraisal blog

Steve-Ostrom-Realtor1Steve Ostrom – Roseville Realtor: The 2013 housing market was a roller coaster ride, with crazy turns the whole way, powered by years of government interference.

Barb Lebrecht – Realtor: It appears for now that the cash dragon is in hibernation. The Barbara-Lebrechtdecrease in competition and increase in inventory makes it a great opportunity for buyers that feel a little tattered from recent market conditions.

Jeff Grenz – Realtor: While we are looking at a little slow down, some of which is due to normal, but forgotten Jeff-Grenz-Real-Estate-Brokerseasonal trend, I am encouraged when I look at the suburbs, where the dollar volume is pretty significant, average prices are almost double and are hitting 2004 levels (vs 2003 for Sacramento)…. I’m thinking it is due to a return of confidence and ability to get loans in the higher price ranges, not necessarily income growth but I’m speculating.

Angela-Jones-RealtorAngela Jones – Realtor: I felt like 2013 was headed for the same disaster of a situation we experienced in the mid-2000s. Huge price increases, investors beating out owner-occupants, double digit multiple offers creating a feeding frenzy! Glad to see the values for the most part stabilize.

Keith-Klassen-RealtorKeith Klassen – Realtor: The market in 2013 began with a hopefulness and turned into an upward, turbo-propelled rocket. People who were upside down in their mortgage and investors who were hanging on for dear life, now could sell – and that’s what many did! During the later part of the year the mood changed as investors hit the brakes and many have pulled out of the market. It’s no secret, but at this moment at the end of the year, the savvy investors that have stuck around and are not too busy with holiday shopping may get some good deals. Busy-with-life home buyers will most likely get back on track come the end of January 2014. We are primed for more balanced, but slowly increasing market in 2014.

Doug-Reynolds-RealtorDoug Reynolds – Realtor: The market was in full sprint mode from January through July with prices skyrocketing, multiple offer competition, no inventory to speak of and cash buyers everywhere. As 2013 comes to an end, the market is taking a holiday breather where many cash investors have pulled back, inventory is trickling up and buyers are taking a bit more time to make a decision, as balance of power is being restored.

Erin-StumpfErin Stumpf – Realtor: In 2013 the Sacramento real estate market started off with a high fever, and the only cure was higher interest rates and rising prices and waning investor demand. As 2013 ends, we have higher interest rates, higher prices, and lower investor demand — and a low fever but still solid demand. It’s nice to see your average joe have a legitimate chance to actually purchase a house!

Craig-DunniganCraig Dunnigan – Realtor: Investors dominated the residential market the first half of 2013….The last half of 2013 has seen the market returning to normalcy, with more “move up” and first time homebuyers.

Bruce Slaton – Realtor: Market had overcorrected, Hedge Funds saw increasing need for rentals, Bruce_Slaton_reasonably_smalllower gains in stock market, housing undervalued.. Hedge buys until their internal data shows they may have priced themselves out, left to better markets…we captured equity, was best time to sell…2014 will be the year of no smoke and mirrors, the market will have to face reality and novel things such as Appraised Value, Condition, Pricing At Something Called Comparables…The difference between Listing Agents and Marketing REALTORS will be defined in 2014…looking forward to a medicated market in 2014…

Eric-Peterson-Praxis-Capital1Eric Peterson – Realtor: The market accelerated through the spring with higher than expected price appreciation across all segments. Unfortunately, on the 1st of July the market began to cool and once the numbers are in for the final months of 2013, I believe roughly half of the appreciation gained in the first six months of 2013 will have been given back in the second half of the year.

Gena-Riede-RealtorGena Riede – Realtor: The real estate market in 2013 saw most homes in multiple offers with buyers willing and able to pay the difference in appraisal amount & buyer’s offer. By the end of 2013 with low inventory & freezing temperatures, buyer rush somewhat cooled with fewer multiple offers & some reduction in listing prices where sellers continued thinking prices were on an upward trend. Typically, this time of year more buyers are dealing with the holidays so I believe we will see multiple offers again in 2014 even though lending will be tighter and home sellers are preparing their homes for sale.

Lori ModeLori Mode – Realtor: Although the real estate market in Sacramento has been challenging at times this year because of many changes and shifts in the market, I have great expectations for an incredible 2014. I see many more homeowners being able to move up or downsize due to added equity in their homes, which makes 2014 a very promising year.

As an FYI, here is a quick video I put together to talk through the image above. It’s amazing to see that the median price in Sacramento County increased by 53% over the past two years. That’s NOT a typo.

Closing Comments: Thank you everyone for your thoughts. I sincerely appreciate the array of insight and experience represented here. As an appraiser it’s my job to pay close attention to market trends in the Sacramento area, and a big part of that involves digesting what I hear from trusted Realtors who are riding the waves of the market with buyers and sellers. Thank you again friends.

sacramento realtors - by sacramento appraisal blog

Question: Any thoughts, insight or stories to share? I’d love to hear your take.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: 2013 real estate market, Angela Jones, appraiser Sacramento, Barb Lebrecht, Bruce Slaton, Craig Dunnigan, Doug Reynolds, Eric Peterson, Erin Stumpf, Gena Riede, home appraisals, house appraisals, Jeff Grenz, Keith Klassen, Lori Mode, real estate market trends, Sacramento Real Estate, Sacramento Real Estate Market, Steve Ostrom

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First off, thank you for being here. Now let's get into the fine print. The material and information contained on this website is the copyrighted property of Ryan Lundquist and Lundquist Appraisal Company. Content on this website may not be reproduced or republished without prior written permission from Ryan Lundquist.

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The information on this website is meant entirely for educational purposes and is not intended in any way to support an opinion of value for your appraisal needs or any sort of value conclusion for a loan, litigation, tax appeal or any other potential real estate or non-real estate purpose. The material found on this website is meant for casual reading only and is not intended for use in a court of law or any other legal use. Ryan will not appear in court in any capacity based on any information posted here. For more detailed market analysis to be used for an appraisal report or any appraisal-related purpose or valuation consulting, please contact Ryan at 916-595-3735 for more information.

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