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Not everything is getting multiple offers

October 2, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 14 Comments

Everything is getting multiple offers, right? Many sellers feel that way, but it’s just not true. Today let’s dive deeply into what is actually happening with multiple offers. I’m excited about this and I hope you like it too.

Non-locals: If you’re not local, would understanding more about multiple offers help you? Could you ask your MLS about including a “multiple offers” field? This is how I’ve been able to extract data like this for my market.

FIVE THINGS ABOUT MULTIPLE OFFERS

1) A rhythm of multiple offers: There is a rhythm to seeing multiple offers in the Sacramento region. There are more multiple offers in the spring and less as summer and fall unfold. This isn’t a huge surprise, but it’s cool to see on paper. If you wanted to know, 42% of sales last month had more than one offer (which is what I mean by “multiple offers”).

2) The market isn’t always hot: It’s tempting to talk about real estate like it’s always “hot”, but it’s not. Every year the market heats up and cools as you can see in the images below. But on top of a normal seasonal up and down dynamic we’re seeing price growth slow too. In other words, prices just haven’t been rising as fast as they used to. When it comes to multiple offers, we’re seeing fewer these days compared to the past couple years. This is such a good point for sellers to understand. The market isn’t what it used to be. It’s still very competitive if you’re priced right, but it’s not like it was in the heyday of 2013.

3) Sellers, you might just get one offer: It’s easy to think everything is getting multiple offers, but it’s not true. When looking at thousands of current pendings, 59% of homes have only one offer while 20% have two offers. Thus 79% of properties in contract right now have two offers or fewer. My advice? Price realistically for today and you might get a couple offers. But you might only get one. Oh, and if you overprice you likely won’t get any offers at all.

4) It’s more aggressive at lower prices: This won’t come as a shock, but we’re seeing more multiple offers at lower price points. Here’s a look at multiple offers among current pendings as well as recent sales. Keep in mind there aren’t many sales and pendings above $700,000, so I wouldn’t put too much weight on these categories showing a higher percentage.

5) Many layers to the onion: Looking at multiple offers is just one way to see what the market is doing. The truth is there are many layers of the onion when it comes to real estate data, which is why I advise looking to many different metrics to understand the market. In other words, it’s not just about multiple offers to me (but this is cool to see).

QUESTIONS:

How did I get this data? A few years ago our MLS started including fields for “multiple offers” and “number of offers”. I’ve been watching these metrics and reporting on them for the past year or so, but today I’ve taken it to the next level. 

Is this data reliable? I’ve had a few people question whether this data is reliable. Of course data is only good as the input by real estate agents and hopefully the truth is being told. Do some people fudge the numbers? Probably. But keep in mind we’re looking at thousands of sales and pendings, so a few outliers won’t sway the trend. Moreover, the bulk of pendings actually show just one offer, which helps support the notion of agent honesty. 

I hope this was interesting or helpful.

RECESSION PRESENTATION: I keep getting asked about home prices and a looming recession, so I put together a quick presentation to download.

BEER & HOUSING CONVERSATION: Do you want to hang out at Yolo Brewing? On Saturday October 5th from 2-5pm I’m co-hosting a get-together. Hope to see you there. Details here.

Questions: What stands out to you most about the images above? What are you seeing with multiple offers these days? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: Appraisal, appraisals, Appraiser, cooling housing market, current market, Home Appraiser, Market Trends, multiple offers, pendings, sacramento housing market, Sacramento Real Estate, softening market, stats

8 things you can buy if you win Powerball (and the market in Sacramento)

January 12, 2016 By Ryan Lundquist 14 Comments

Have you bought a Powerball ticket? It’s wild to think someone is probably going to win 1.5 billion dollars this week. Of course there’s an extremely slim chance you’d actually win, but if you do, here are some things you can buy when it comes to real estate. After that, let’s take an in-depth look at Sacramento’s housing market.

powerball winner - real estate - sacramento appraisal blog

8 real estate things you can buy if you win Powerball

  1. All current listings in Sacramento: You could literally buy every single active residential listing in Sacramento, Placer, and Yolo County (and still have about $150M left).
  2. NBA Team: You could buy the Sacramento Kings NBA team and have about one billion to spare.
  3. 63 million Shares of Zillow: You could buy 63,911,376 shares of Zillow ($23.47 per share).
  4. Buy an Island: This is an obvious choice for a billionaire. You could easily buy your own island. Heck, you could buy a group of islands. See some islands that are for sale right now.
  5. Own 7 Years of East Sacramento Sales: If you bought every single house that sold on MLS in East Sacramento since October 2008, you would still have 600 million left.
  6. Build a Sports Stadium: Most recent professional sports stadiums have ranged in cost from around $500M to $1.5B. For instance, the 49ers new stadium cost around $1.3B and the Sacramento Kings stadium is coming in around $500M. If you buy, what are you going to name it?
  7. Build a Bigger House than that One Guy in India: You may remember hearing about a 27-story residential home that was built in India in 2014. This home can withstand an 8.0 earthquake and it’s the second most expensive home in the world behind Buckingham Palace. Keep in mind it requires a staff of 600 to care for it. The property was said to have cost $1B total, so you have the coin to pull it off (Wikipedia).
  8. Do Some Good: Imagine the good you could do if you won the lottery. But we know that’s not going to happen. The great thing is we don’t have to wait to win Powerball to be generous since generosity is only relative to how much money we have – whether two dollars or $1.5B.

By the way, the winner won’t actually get 1.5 billion. I realize a huge sum is coming off the top right away for taxes and such.

Now let’s look at the latest Sacramento real estate trends.

the market in 2015 in sacramento

Two ways to read THE BIG MONTHLY POST:

  1. Scan the talking points and graphs quickly.
  2. Grab a cup of coffee and spend a few minutes digesting what is here.

DOWNLOAD 78 graphs HERE (zip file): Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file (or send me an email). Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Quick Market Summary: If I had to sum up the market last year I would say: Modest value appreciation, but aggressive demand. If I added a few more details I would say the story of the market is summed up as follows: More sales, lower inventory, higher demand, a fairly normal fall (though far less dull than 2014), and modest value increases over the year. Right now housing inventory is only 1.28 months in the region, which is 32% lower than last year at the same time. Overall sales volume in 2015 was 10.8% higher in the regional market, and it’s important to note FHA volume increased by 30% this year. In December it took 4 days longer to sell a home than it did in November, and that reminds us the market experienced a seasonal softening dynamic even in the midst of more competition. Remember though it was taking 90 days to sell a house four years ago, and selling in less than half the time right now helps us see the market can be different each year depending on inventory, interest rates, the economy, etc…  Overall most of the value increases came in the first two quarters of the year, and the market was fairly flat for the past six months in terms of value. Buyers really haven’t had very many options because of how low inventory has been, but at the same time buyers are exhibiting price sensitivity by not pulling the trigger on overpriced listings. One last aspect worth mentioning is rents have been increasing in many areas in Sacramento, and it’s worth watching this trend.

SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

  1. It took 4 more days to sell a house last month than November (but 7 days less than last year at the same time).
  2. Sales volume was 20% higher this December compared to last December.
  3. Sales volume was 10.9% higher in 2015 compared to 2014.
  4. FHA sales represented 27.5% of all sales during the past quarter.
  5. Housing inventory is 41% lower than it was last year at the same time.
  6. The median price increased by 2% last month (see #6).
  7. The average price per sq ft and average sales price stayed about the same from the previous month (so don’t put too much weight on #5).
  8. The average price per sq ft is 10% higher than last year at the same time.
  9. The median price is 11% higher than it was last year at the same time.
  10. REO sales were less than 4% of all sales last quarter (Short Sales were less than 5%).

Some of my Favorite Graphs this Month:

sales in 2015 2

Median price and inventory since 2011 by sacramento appraisal blog

bottom of market

fha and cash in sacramento county by sacramento appraisal blog - part 2

CDOM in Sacramento County - by Sacramento Appraisal Blog

inventory - December 2015 - by home appraiser blog

REOs and Short Sales in Sacramento County since the bottom

price metrics since 2014 in sacramento county - look at all

SACRAMENTO REGIONAL MARKET:

  1. It took 3 more days to sell a house last month than November, but it was taking one week longer to sell at the same time last year.
  2. Sales volume was 14.5% higher this December compared to last December.
  3. Sales volume was 10.8% higher in 2015 compared to 2014.
  4. Housing inventory is 32% lower than the same time last year.
  5. Cash sales were only 15% of all sales in 2015.
  6. The average price per sq ft, median price, and average sales price showed a slight seasonal dip over the past few months.
  7. The avg price per sq ft is 7.5% higher than last year at the same time.
  8. The median price is 5.6% higher than it was last year at the same time.
  9. REO sales were 3.5% of all sales last month.
  10. Short sales were only 3% of all sales last month in the region.

Some of my Favorite Regional Graphs:

sales volume 2015 vs 2014 in sacramento placer yolo el dorado county

prices in sacramento region - FHA and conventional - by appraiser blog

months of housing inventory in region by sacramento appraisal blog

days on market in placer sac el dorado yolo county by sacramento appraisal blog

median price and inventory in sacramento regional market

interest rates inventory median price in sacramento regional market by sacramento appraisal blog

PLACER COUNTY:

  1. It took 6 more days to sell a house last month than November, but it was taking 5 days longer to sell at the same time last year.
  2. Sales volume was 1% higher this December compared to last December.
  3. Sales volume was 13% higher in 2015 compared to 2014.
  4. Housing inventory is 16% lower than the same time last year.
  5. Cash sales were only 15% of all sales in 2015.
  6. The average price per sq ft, median price, and average sales price showed a slight seasonal dip over the past few months.
  7. The avg price per sq ft is 3.6% higher than last year at the same time.
  8. The median price is 2% higher than it was last year at the same time.
  9. REO sales were 1.8% of all sales last month.
  10. Short sales were only 3% of all sales last month in the region.

days on market in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog months of housing inventory in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog number of listings in PLACER county - December 2015 Placer County price and inventory - by sacramento appraisal blog Placer County sales volume - by sacramento appraisal blog

I hope this was helpful and interesting.

DOWNLOAD 78 graphs HERE (zip file): Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file (or send me an email). Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Questions: How would you spend the money if you won at Powerball? What stands out to you about the latest stats in Sacramento? How would you describe the market? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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Filed Under: Market Trends, Random Stuff Tagged With: appraisal blog in sacramento, appraisers in Sacramento, cash investors, El Dorado County, FHA, housing inventory, low inventory, market graphs, market trends in Sacramento, Placer County, Powerball, sacramento appraisal group, sacramento housing market, Sacramento Real Estate Market, stats, Yolo County

Comparing real estate in the 95670 and 95742 zip codes in Rancho Cordova

February 1, 2011 By Ryan Lundquist 1 Comment

It’s easy to view all sales in a given city on one graph, but what happens when we begin to unpack data a bit and look at specific areas or zip codes? We just might notice differences because there are often a number of real estate segments or sub-markets within a given city. As we all know, not all neighborhoods are competitive to each other, so it’s important to try to look at neighborhood-specific data to really understand the real estate market. Below is a trend graph of all sales in the City of Rancho Cordova over roughly the past five years.

There are actually three zip codes in Rancho Cordova (only two with houses really though). Let’s put the 95670 and 95742 zip codes in Rancho Cordova next to each other below and do a little comparison to see if we might get better data this way as opposed to just looking at the graph above. What do you see when viewing data in the 95670 zip code (not Gold River – only Rancho Cordova) in comparison to the 95742 zip code (Anatolia, Kavala Ranch, Sunridge)?

Rancho Cordova Real Estate Data (95670 Zip Code)
* 107 sales over the past 90 days
* 5.4 months of current housing supply listed on the market
* $146,000 median sales price over the past 90 days
* Average days on market: 64 days
* Number of active listings: 92
* Number of active short sale listings: 59
* Number of active short sale contingent listings: 43
* Number of pendings: 56
* 42% of all sales over the past year were REO (bank-owned)
* 26% of all sales over the past year were Short Sales
* Roughly 68% of all sales were distressed in some regard (REO or SS)
* Unemployment in Rancho Cordova is 14.4% per EDD (as of 12/2010)
* Unemployment in Sacramento County is 12.6% per EDD (as of 12/2010)

Rancho Cordova Real Estate Data (95742 Zip Code)
* 61 sales over the past 90 days
* 7.1 months of current housing supply listed on the market
* $231,000 median sales price over the past 90 days
* Average days on market: 86 days
* Number of active listings: 44
* Number of active short sale listings: 60
* Number of active short sale contingent listings: 41
* Number of pendings: 54
* 32% of all sales over the past year were REO (bank-owned)
* 29% of all sales over the past year were Short Sales
* Roughly 61% of all sales were distressed in some regard (REO or SS)
* Unemployment in Rancho Cordova is 14.4% per EDD (as of 12/2010)
* Unemployment in Sacramento County is 12.6% per EDD (as of 12/2010)

What stands out to you about the differences between 95670 and 95742? When we combine 95742 data into 95670 data to show all of Rancho Cordova, the entire median sales price level for Rancho Cordova increases, doesn’t it? Can you see why I think it’s important to look at these zip codes separately? Ah, we can make data say so many things if we’re not careful to really dissect it.

If you have any real estate appraisal, valuation consulting, or property tax appeal needs, contact me at 916.595.3735, www.LundquistCompany.com or via Facebook.

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Filed Under: Market Trends, Resources Tagged With: 95670, 95742, Anatolia, Appraiser in Rancho Cordova, data, Kavala Ranch, Lundquist Appraisal Company, Rancho Cordova, Rancho Cordova Real Estate, Rancho Cordova Real Estate Appraiser, stats, Sunridge

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