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The myth of the collapsing market (and a big Sacramento market update)

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Positive real estate news is sexy. It gets clicks. It makes us feel good. And we love sharing it. But what happens when the market cools? Well, it’s not always easy to digest. In fact, lots of people freak out and think the market is starting to tank when it’s actually just doing its normal thing of slowing. Today let’s talk about the danger of embracing the collapsing market myth, and then take a deep look at the slowing Sacramento market. Any thoughts?

The myth of the collapsing market: The market tends to slow down around this time of year. Just as the weather changes, so does the real estate market. The kids go back to school, sales volume usually starts to slide, inventory goes up, and prices soften. Yet despite this happening nearly every single year, we hear things like, “The market is beginning to take a big turn” or “The ‘bubble’ has finally popped.” Case-in-point, I watched a video a few weeks back from a national show that said new construction home prices in Texas were beginning to take a turn, and that the Texas market was six months ahead of everyone else. Maybe this show is correct, but my problem is the host made a huge sweeping market statement based on a VERY minor dip in prices from June to July. I suppose I could do the same in Sacramento since the median price dipped 1% last month. The truth is we’ll see many more articles like this in coming months because we tend to confuse a seasonal softening with a big market turn. It’s like we forget the market is cyclical at this time of year.

My advice? Cut through the hype and know the seasonal market wherever you are located in the United States. What does the market normally do at this time of year? What normally happens to prices, sales volume, and inventory? Understanding what a slowing season tends to look like can help us give advice to friends and clients, and we can avoid saying the market is tanking just because prices dipped last month. Of course at some point the market really could collapse, but unless we are seeing symptoms beyond a normal seasonal slowing, it’s probably okay to be cautious of a doom & gloom housing message.

I hope that was helpful or interesting. Any thoughts?

–——-——- Big monthly market update (it’s long on purpose) ———–——-

The stats have been glowing for months in Sacramento County, but last month we finally saw a dip in prices. In short, the glowing stats are now showing a slowing. But that’s not really a surprise because we all felt this slowing in the market for the past 30-60 days. It’s just we didn’t see it show up in the sales stats until now. After all, it takes a month or two to see slower pendings close escrow. Anyway, the median price dipped by about 1%, inventory increased, and most importantly it took 3 days longer to sell last month than the previous month. I know, there are still multiple offers and there is still upward pressure in some areas and price ranges. I get that. Remember, the market is slowing, but that does not mean it is dull or slow. Ultimately when looking at price metrics, the market is up anywhere from 7-9% from last year, and sales volume is about the same as last year too, which shows the market is trying to normalize. Housing inventory in the region is about 10% lower than it was last year at the same time, which reminds us that the market is still more aggressive compared to last year. Lastly, if the market was collapsing, I’d suspect we would be seeing a big change in the psyche of buyers, a big change in inventory, and a big change in sales volume. Not that the market has to tank the same way all the time, but if values were turning we’d likely expect to see something much more out-of-the-ordinary beyond all the normal seasonal stuff we’re seeing right now.

DOWNLOAD 66 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post and more here as a zip file (includes a stat sheet too). See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs & stats here):

SACRAMENTO COUNTY STATS:

  1. The median price is currently $348,000 and dipped 1% last month.
  2. The median price is 7.6% higher than the same time last year.
  3. Sales volume in August was 4.7% lower this year than 2016. There were 1668 single family detached sales last month.
  4. It took an average of 24 days to sell a home last month (one year ago it was taking 2 days longer).
  5. The median days on market last month was 12 days, which means properties are selling quickly.
  6. It took 3 more days to sell in August compared to July (median days).
  7. FHA sales were 22.6% of all sales last month in the county.
  8. Only 0.8% of sales last month were bank-owned & 1.5% were short sales.
  9. The avg price per sq ft was about $223, which is slightly higher than last month (8.7% higher than last year).
  10. The avg sales price decreased about 1.5% last month and is currently $378,885. This is 6.8% higher than last year.
  11. Cash sales were 12.5% of all sales last month.

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs & stats here):

SACRAMENTO REGION STATS:

  1. The median price is $389,900 and declined slightly last month.
  2. The median price is 9% higher than the same time last year.
  3. Sales volume in August was 0.2% higher this year than 2016. There were 2771 single family detached sales last month.
  4. It took an average of 28 days to sell a home last month (one year ago it was taking 3 days longer).
  5. The median days on market last month was 13 days, which means properties are selling really quickly.
  6. The median days on market increased by 2 days last month, which helps shows a slowing in the market.  
  7. FHA sales were 18.1% of all sales last month.
  8. Only 0.8% of sales last month were bank-owned & 1.48% were short sales.
  9. The avg price per sq ft was about $227, which is the same as last month (7.9% higher than last year).
  10. The avg sales price declined slightly last month and is currently $430,101. This is 8.6% higher than last year.
  11. Cash sales were 14% of all sales last month.

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs & stats here):

 

PLACER COUNTY STATS:

  1. The median price is currently $462,000 and increased about 2% last month (but still down from a couple months ago).
  2. The median price is 7.4% higher than the same time last year.
  3. Sales volume in August was 14% higher this year than 2016. There were 637 single family detached sales.
  4. It took an average of 30 days to sell a home last month (one year ago it was taking 10 days longer).
  5. The median days on market last month was 15 days, which means properties are selling really quickly.
  6. The median days on market increased by 3 days last month, which helps shows a slowing in the market. 
  7. FHA sales were 12.5% of all sales.
  8. There were only 2 bank-owned sales last month and only 9 short sales.
  9. The avg price per sq ft was $229, which is slightly higher than last month (7.4% higher than last year).
  10. The avg sales price increased about 0.5% last month and is currently $508.686. This is 7.7% higher than last year.
  11. Cash sales were 14.4% of all sales last month.

DOWNLOAD 66 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post and more here as a zip file (includes a stat sheet too). See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What are you seeing out there? What signs of slowing have you noticed? Did I miss anything? I’d love to hear your take.

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5 things to remember about lofty list prices

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There’s huge buzz this week about a $4.1 million dollar condo that just hit the market. I know that’s chump change in other places, but it’s a conversation piece in Sacramento since we don’t see listings anywhere near that level in Downtown (or almost anywhere in the county). Anyway, there’s some good conversation to be had from this, so I hoped we could consider a few ideas and then unpack local market trends (for those interested). Any thoughts?

5 things to remember about lofty list prices:

1) Attention & buzz: A high list price for a luxury property is designed to get attention, create buzz, and help market a property. In this case the $4.1 million dollar condo listing is located in a development called The Residences at The Sawyer. This penthouse unit is 3323 sq ft and is located directly across from the new arena at 500 J St (killer location). 

2) Records & price context: When hearing of high listings it’s tempting to treat the list price like a record has been broken. But if we’re honest this list price doesn’t matter unless the property actually sells at that level. Last year in Sacramento we had a $5M listing, the year before it was a $7M one, and a few years back there was a $10M listing. None of them sold = No records. There have actually only been three sales on MLS in the past that have sold at $4,000,000 or above in Sacramento County. They include: 1) The Governor’s Mansion built in Carmichael when Ronald Reagan was Governor (sold in 2004 at $4.1M); 2) A property in Sierra Oaks in 2013 that sold at $4.7M; and 3) An estate in Elk Grove that sold at $4.6M in 2005, and then re-sold for $1.3M in 2011 after a foreclosure.

3) Marketing to non-locals: Most locals aren’t anywhere close to affording a $4,100,000 listing – not to mention the whopping $4,021 monthly HOA fee (that’s not a typo). But the thing is this property is probably being marketed to someone from the Bay Area, maybe one of the owners of The Kings, or one of the Kings players. The Beverly Hills firm who is running the sales office is likely focused on non-locals more than anything because this is the type of property that would appeal to a wider group outside of the region. In that sense the property is an anomaly of sorts. Of course there is no guarantee they can fetch a price that high. For reference, the highest condo price I’m aware of in Midtown is the L-Street Lofts penthouse which former NBA player Kevin Martin bought for $1.34M in 2008 (and it re-sold in 2014 for $1.3M). The location on J St is bound to fetch higher prices, but how much higher? We’ll see.

Here’s a Twitter pricing poll I ran yesterday.  🙂

4) Reductions and good deals: It’s tempting for sellers to list something at an absurdly high price level, reduce the list price, and still feel tied to the original list price. So the seller says, “Hey, we came down 30% in price already. The buyer is getting a great deal.” But the problem is the listing was priced 30% too high to begin with. We see this with outrageously priced high listings, but we also see it in just about every neighborhood too. Thanks Jonathan Miller for influencing my thoughts on this.

5) Freaking out: When hearing about a “4 million dollar” property, it’s easy to freak out and start saying, “Holy Batman, prices in Sacramento are now at LA and SF levels,” or “I cannot believe how high values have risen.” Take a breath though because this is just a listing right now. If it makes you feel better, remember that $250,000,000 listing in Bel-Air that garnered world-wide attention in January? Well, that one’s still listed for sale at the same price… In short, let’s give this one some space and see if this price pans out or not.

I hope that was helpful or interesting. Any thoughts?

———–——-——- big monthly market update below ——-———–——-

A LOCAL MARKET SUMMARY:

Values have continued to increase in the spring, though at the same time the market isn’t aggressive in every price range. When looking at Sac county and the region as a whole, both the average sales price and average price per sq ft saw increases last month. On the other hand the median price softened slightly (don’t make too much of that since the median can go up and down depending on what has sold). Housing inventory feels like it is doing the Limbo as it keeps going down and down. Seriously, inventory was already low last year, but it’s 20% lower this year. This is definitely putting pressure of values to increase in some price ranges. My sense is lower prices in just about every neighborhood are experiencing upward pressure because that’s what represents affordability to buyers for those areas. So buyers in La Riviera are feeling the pressure under $300,000, buyers in Whitney Ranch are feeling it under $400,000, and buyers in East Sacramento are feeling similar pressure under $450,000. Yet buyers at middle-to-upper ranges are not experiencing this same dynamic because the market is flat or soft in many areas at upper price levels (yet we still might see multiple offers though). As expected, last month it took about 5 less days to sell than the previous month. I could go on and on with words, but let me share some graphs to show the market visually. 

DOWNLOAD 53 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file (including a quick stat sheet). See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Sacramento County graphs this month (more here):

Sacramento regional graphs (more here):

DOWNLOAD 53 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file (including a one-page quick stat sheet). See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Questions: What do you think of the $4.1M condo listing? Did I miss anything? What are you seeing out there in the market? I’d love to hear your take.

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When the market feels aggressive…

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The market feels aggressive out there. I don’t know about you, but I’m having so many conversations about rising prices at the lower end, a shortage of inventory, and even low appraisals. So I wanted to share some of the talking points floating around out there and give some commentary too. Here’s a list of things coming up in discussion lately (it’s longer on purpose). Anything to add?

sacramento appraisal blog - housing market

One buyer vs market value: Value is what a buyer is willing to pay. I hear that statement quite a bit, but what one buyer is willing to pay could represent an individual’s value rather than market value – which is what appraisers are gauging.

Front-loaded market: Most of the value increases are usually found in the beginning of the year. Thus if values went up 5% last year, that means we probably saw about a 1% increase per month during the first two quarters of the year. But if the bottom of the market increased by say 12%, then we saw a 2% monthly increase. Of course some months might see greater appreciation rates than others.

sacramento appraisal blog

The need to respect pendings: Sales tell us about where the market used to be when they got into contract 60-90 days ago, but pendings tell us about the temperature of the current market. This is why we have to respect pendings. For instance, during a recent appraisal of a fairly original home in South Sacramento I saw some properties close around $230,000 less than six months ago, and now similar ones are getting offers galore at $245,000+. The tricky part is I don’t know the exact price and terms of a pending unless I call the agent (and he/she tells me). 

One sale or pending doesn’t make the market: Let’s remember value in a market is not based on one high sale. In today’s market if a buyer paid $25,000 above appraised value, for instance, an appraiser has to consider if that property at $25,000 above everything really represents the market or just one buyer willing to pay more. This is a reminder that appraisers and agents have to “appraise the comps” so to speak. We can’t just blindly accept the final sales price of a comp without understanding the back story of why it closed that high. The same holds true with pendings as we can’t base an entire valuation on one “lone ranger” that is higher than anything else.

South Sacramento

Upward adjustments by appraisers: Value adjustments can be given by appraisers to account for an increasing market. These adjustments can be figured out with graphs, analyzing sales and pendings, talking to real estate agents, etc… This is what I did with the South Sacramento property above as my comps were 2-6 months old, but the market was 4-6% higher easily because the pendings were all trending higher. The truth is if I didn’t give upward adjustments my value would have reflected the past instead of today’s market. Some appraisers might not give a specific upward adjustment, and I won’t split hairs over that so long as an increase in value is accounted for somehow in the appraisal.  

Appraisers aren’t hired to “hit the number”: A lender hires an appraiser to assess whether a loan should be made or not. Thus if a buyer offers an unrealistic price, the buyer might be willing to pay that amount, but if the house cannot sell for that price to the rest of the market, it doesn’t make sense for the lender to make the loan at that level. In this regard it’s reasonable to see appraisals come in lower than some of the high offers we’re seeing.

Multiple offers don’t always mean aggressive increases: Just because there are many offers doesn’t mean values are increasing rapidly. In some price ranges we are seeing clear increases in value and other prices ranges feel a bit flat. Realistically though there are likely to be multiple offers in about every price range (more at the lower end). This is a good reminder that at times there is a difference between how the market feels and what it is doing (actual data).

what-market-value-looks-like-sacramento-appraisal-blog-530

Different trends different neighborhoods: It’s easy to project what is happening in one neighborhood onto another or use one sweeping cliché to describe all locations and price ranges, but we have to look at actual numbers in each neighborhood to understand what the market is doing there.

Informed buyers: Having low inventory is creating some aggressive offers out there, and while buyers are willing to overpay to a certain extent for the right property, they won’t literally pay any price just because “nothing is on the market.”

Not easy to interpret: If we’re honest it’s not always easy to interpret what the market is doing – especially when things seem crazy with multiple offers and bidding wars. This is a good reminder to be humble because the market isn’t always wrapped up in a neat little perfectly decipherable package. There are things we can expect of course and seasons of the year, but the market is still distinct and sometimes even surprising. Let’s be real about that.

A perfect season for communication: This is a perfect market to foster excellent communication between real estate agents and appraisers. Agents, sticks to the facts and tell the story of the marketing of the property when talking to appraisers. Feel free to use my Appraiser Info Sheet (local agents, I love when you use this). In any price range where values are changing quickly, insight from agents can really help appraisers. On that note, Appraisers, glean insight from agents by finding time to make phone calls and asking the right questions about comps and the subject.

Reconsideration of value: I did a presentation recently on tips when asking an appraiser to reconsider the value. If anyone wants a copy of it, just send me an email (lundquistcompany @ gmail  dot com). You can also read this post.

Hindsight makes everyone sound smart: When in the thick of a “hot” market it’s not always clear what the exact trend is, but after a few months when more stats are published everyone and their Mom sounds like a real estate expert. #truth

Questions: Anything else to add? What else are you seeing out there in the market right now? I’d love to hear your take.

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10 things to know about low housing inventory

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Inventory is low. Really low. That’s one of the big stories right now in real estate, so I wanted to spend some time kicking around some thoughts. Let’s take a look at ten things to know about housing supply in Sacramento. If you aren’t local, I hope you can still find some value. Do you see any parallels to your market? Any thoughts? 

DOWNLOAD 50 graphs HERE: Please download new market graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT LOW HOUSING INVENTORY

1) Housing inventory is clearly on a declining trend.

inventory in sacramento county Since 2013 - part 2 - by sacramento appraisal blog

Housing supply has been vanishing over the past few years in light of greater buyer demand, sellers sitting instead of selling, less new construction, increasing sales volume, and other reasons.

2) Housing supply is really sparse (except at the top).

inventory - March 2017 - by home appraiser blog

Housing supply was low last year, but this year it’s 15-20% lower. Having less listings means it’s really competitive for buyers – especially under $400,000. However, inventory is not low at every price range as there are far more listings at the top. Before freaking out though, this is actually a normal trend we see almost every single month. But the disparity between under $500,000 and above $1,000,000 is striking. As an FYI, it’s worth noting the top of the market does feel a bit soft.

3) Inventory is still not as low as the Blackstone days.

inventory in sacramento county Since 2011 - by sacramento appraisal blog

It’s true that inventory is anemic, but we have to remember during 2012 and 2013 it was at one month for nearly an entire year when Blackstone and other investors were gutting the market. I mention this because while the market has an aggressive feel, it’s still not what it was. If inventory persists in declining though it will be a bloodbath in terms of competition for buyers (good for sellers though as a developer mentioned to me on Twitter). 

4) Inventory was 1400% higher ten years ago during the “bubble”.

inventory in sacramento county Since 2007 - by sacramento appraisal blog

Ten years ago during the worst of the real estate “bubble” popping we had a 14-month supply of homes for sale (as opposed to one month now).

5) Bank-owned inventory is not a driving factor today.

REOs and Short Sales Sacramento County - by Sac Appraisal Blog

Eight years ago over 70% of all sales in Sacramento County were REOs, but that number is now about 3%. Some folks promise a new “foreclosure wave”, but it’s definitely not here right now.

6) Low inventory is putting pressure on values to increase.

Median price since 2013 in sacramento county

Declining inventory over the past few years is a big factor in rising prices. Right now values are about where they were at the height of last summer (or slightly higher) after a lull in the fall in many neighborhoods in Sacramento County. But let’s not make the mistake to think the market is doing the same thing everywhere. The truth is in some areas increases have been modest at best over the past year while some price ranges feel flat, but the bottom of the market is hands-down experiencing the largest increases. Remember, in some price ranges the market feels more aggressive than actual value increases too, so it’s really important to sift through emotions, look at actual numbers, and not overprice because the market is “hot”. A good mantra for some areas is “Aggressive Demand, Modest Appreciation.”

7) Strong demand is a huge reason why inventory is declining:

price metrics since 2014 in sacramento county

Demand is strong right now for both buying and renting, and buyers and tenants are simply gobbling up almost anything out there (I say “almost” because buyers are still sensitive about adverse locations and overpriced homes). Thus it’s not surprising to see the median price is 7% higher than last year, the average sales price is 9% higher, and the average price per sq ft is about 9% higher. Prices increases from February to March were anywhere from 1-3% depending on the metric (this doesn’t mean values went up by 1-3% though). 

8) Increasing sales volume is one reason for lower inventory.

Cash in Q1 - by Sacramento Regional Appraisal Blog

Housing inventory is the relationship between sales and listings, so if there are more sales and no real change in the number of listings it will naturally mean inventory as a metric will show a decline. Look at the graph above to see all sales since 2013 for the first quarter of the year. Can you see how sales volume is increasing? At the same time we see cash volume declining. This reminds us the market is trying to figure out what normal looks like. It’s healthy to see sales volume growing.

9) Low interest rates have helped take homes off the market.

Interest Rates Since 2008

Historically low interest rates have played a big role in shaping inventory in that some owners are sitting on a 3.5% interest rate from years ago and they are simply not going to move unless necessary. Why would they anyway if their replacement home would come with a much higher mortgage? This means there are fewer homes hitting the market that might otherwise sell.

10) Low inventory is causing homes to sell faster.

CDOM in Sacramento County - by Sacramento Regional Appraisal Blog

Last year it was taking 5 days longer to sell a home and two years ago in March 2015 it was taking 15 days longer to sell a home. Can you see how low inventory makes a difference in how long it takes to sell? By the way, here is CDOM by price range. As you can see, the higher the price the longer it takes to sell. Just because it is a “hot” market does not mean every property is selling in 3 days.

BIG MONTHLY POST NOTE: Once a month I do a big market update (and it’s long purpose). Normally I talk about Placer County and the Sac Region too, but I tore my MCL a few weeks back, so I only had time to focus on Sacramento County in today’s post. Next month I’ll likely be back to normal (but I may change it up too).

DOWNLOAD 50 graphs HERE: Please download new market graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: Did I miss anything? Any other thoughts as to why inventory is low? How would you describe the market right now? I’d love to hear your take.

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