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housing trends in sacramento

The housing market feels like chaos

April 13, 2021 By Ryan Lundquist 29 Comments

It feels like chaos out there. The housing market is on steroids and it’s mind-blowing to see such rapid growth lately. Today I want to unpack ten things I’m watching in today’s market. For my out-of-area readers, I’m guessing you are probably seeing the same trends. But please let me know. What is similar or different in your area?

MARKET UPDATE PRESENTATION: I’m giving a big presentation next week by Zoom for SAFE Credit Union. It’s free and you are invited to sign up here. It could be useful for background noise while working. Hope to see you there.

10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT THE MARKET

Skim or read in depth. The following post is organized around ten points.

1) PRICES ARE INSANE:

We’ve seen enormous price increases lately. It’s mind-blowing to see 20% increases because the market really was slowing down in recent years. Also, the median price in the region is up nearly 9% from two months ago in January.

Here’s a different way to look at prices. The orange line represents 2021. It’s an outlier market, right?

2) BUYERS MADE TWICE AS MANY OFFERS LAST MONTH:

Buyers made twice as many offers last month compared to the previous year. These figures are based on closed sales and MLS data.

3) MORE BUYERS ARE OFFERING 5-10% ABOVE THE ORIGINAL PRICE:

Here’s a look at what buyers are paying right now in relation to the original list price. One of the glowing stats is we’ve seen about five times as many buyers paying 5-10% above the original list price this year. Wild times, right? Of course only six percent of sales sold below the original list price last month too, which reminds us very few properties are overpriced. Yet nearly one in five sales sold at the original list price. I know, that almost seems like an error, but it’s really not because take a look at last year which represents what should be happening. As you can see if we were having a normal year we’d probably be seeing about half of all sales selling at the original list price. 

Takeaway: Be cautious about saying everything is selling 20% above the list price. The stats don’t support that claim.

4) HOUSING SUPPLY HAS BEEN CHOPPED IN HALF:

I feel like a broken record. Housing supply is about half of what it was last year. The truth is we have weeks of listings and months of buyers.

5) SALES VOLUME HAS BEEN UP FOR TEN MONTHS IN A ROW:

There aren’t enough listings out there to satisfy demand, but for ten months in a row buyers have been buying basically everything, which means we’ve been able to surpass numbers from last year. Some people don’t believe it when I tell them this, but it’s the truth. In short, it is not easy out there, but buyers are getting it done.

NOTE: I have images like these for Placer, El Dorado, and Sacramento County too. Send me an email if you need something.

6) MORE LISTINGS ARE FINALLY COMING:

We are starting to see more listings hit the market. It really is a normal seasonal amount so far, so it’s nothing to write home over, BUT during a pandemic anything that feels close to normal is something we covet. Granted, there are not enough listings to satisfy crazy demand yet or slow down the market, but at the least we’ve seen more lately.

Mortgage applications drop: Speaking of shopping for homes, for three weeks in a row we’ve seen mortgage applications drop. This seems to be a reflection of rising rates and prices lately and it’s one small metric to watch to get a sense of demand in the market. 

7) THE REST OF THE COUNTRY FEELS LIKE SACRAMENTO:

I love this image from Altos Research because it helps show depleted inventory is something happening across the entire country. This is a good reminder because it’s tempting for locals to blame the aggressive market on Bay Area buyers when in fact many markets feel just like this. I’m not diminishing the reality of what seems like increased Bay Area migration, but let’s not forget we’re seeing an ultra-competitive market almost everywhere due to crazy low rates and anemic housing supply during the pandemic.

8) IT’S NOT A DISTRESSED MARKET:

There is so much talk about a coming foreclosure wave, but for now it doesn’t look like there is one on the horizon as forbearance rates are heading in the right direction. We are still in the thick of the pandemic of course, so we are certainly not out of the woods. All I’m saying is I’d recommend being cautious about embracing a doom and gloom narrative because so far the stats don’t support this idea. Let’s stay tuned though. And for the record I will be the first to change my narrative if the stats change… In terms of distressed sales at the moment, we really have bottomed out. It’s hard to get too much lower than 0.39% of sales being bank-owned and 0.30% of sales being short sales.

9) HUGE GROWTH AT THE TOP:

The market is very much top heavy right now. What I mean is we’ve seen explosive growth at higher prices – especially above $1M. This is a dynamic being mirrored in many markets across the country too.

BIG TAKEAWAY: When talking about price stats being 20% higher it’s important to realize some of that growth has to do with the types of homes selling. In short, less at the bottom and more at the top naturally elevates price stats.

10) CONVENTIONAL IS MORE DOMINANT THAN CASH:

The narrative is that cash buyers are gutting the market, but it’s not technically true. Cash really isn’t king these days because it’s so cheap to borrow money. Locally we’re seeing 7 out of 10 sales go conventional. BUT cash is absolutely winning when conventional buyers can bridge the appraisal gap and offer other incentives to the seller. It’s not so easy to get an FHA offer accepted either, but at least 1 out of 10 sales were FHA last quarter.

BONUS: Here are two visuals to show what the median price looks like over the past few decades. In one visual I adjusted for inflation too (which can be an important consideration when comparing today with 2005). Here are some thoughts on how long this market can keep going.

Other visuals: Not that you needed more, but check out my social media in coming days and weeks for extra visuals and commentary. I am posting daily stuff on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn. Oh, and sometimes Instagram.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What stands out to you about the market lately? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: 2021 housing market, Appraisal, Appraiser, housing data, housing trends in sacramento, market data, market graphs, Real Estate Market in Sacramento, sacramento housing market

How long can this market keep going?

February 24, 2021 By Ryan Lundquist 16 Comments

Is the market about to crash? How long can this keep up? What’s going to happen? Every week I’m getting questions like this, so let’s talk through some of the issues. This post has lots of topics that are coming up, so just skim to something that looks interesting. Anything to add?

The truth is nobody knows the future: Most predictions these days either say the market is going to keep increasing for 5-10 years or we’re poised to crash. But nobody knows the future. I know that’s not a popular answer, but it’s true.

Unsustainable: This market is really starting to feel irrational. We are seeing freakish price growth and illogical offers, which is why this does not feel sustainable. I’m not saying the market is going to crash because of this, but I am saying this type of rapid appreciation cannot keep up without simultaneous economic growth or some other stimulus. Last week I got asked about this in a live interview with Fox 40. Enjoy the discussion (see 4:41 for my answer).

It’s not easy to time the market perfectly (seriously): On paper it’s easy to time a real estate market, but it’s not so easy to pull off in the real world because finances and lifestyle don’t always line up perfectly with market conditions. In other words, most people buy when their lifestyle requires a change rather than finding a so-called perfect moment where prices bottom out. In fact, most of the time when I ask people if they bought on purpose in 2012 at the bottom they say, “Nope, I just got lucky.” This is not to pressure anyone to buy right now. I’m just saying it’s a good idea to get rid of “the market is so easy to time” myth and consider your lifestyle as well as prices.

False prophets: Be careful of some who are forecasting the market because they’ve been making false predictions for years and they keep repackaging their prophecies when the old ones don’t come true. By the way, here is a prophet test flow chart to find out if you’re a real estate prophet.

We’re back to peak prices, so we’re going to crash: I gave a presentation recently where I talked about nominal prices being back to 2005 levels in a certain area and someone interpreted that to mean we’re at the top and about to crash. Look, the median price in the entire Sacramento region is now almost 20% higher than it was at the previous top in 2005, so it would’ve popped long ago if there was something magical about getting back to that level. In short, don’t put your stock in “getting back to the top” as a predictor of future trends. And for economic nerds, I’m talking about the nominal price here (which market participants tend to fixate on), so please don’t open up the inflation conversation.

Not the new template: What happened during the last housing correction is not the new template for every future market change, so we cannot look to the previous crash and derive some sort of bubble formula.

I’m going to sell at the top and rent: I had a conversation recently with someone wanting to sell soon and rent until the market crashes. I get it because this person wants to pocket equity and avoid pain, but here’s a practical consideration. If the market did decline it could take years to do so. For instance, it took about 6.5 years for the last cycle to fully decline in Sacramento. Of course the bulk of the decline happened in the first three years. No matter what though, the viable question becomes how long are you going to rent for?

Fear of missing out: There is a palpable fear among some buyers about missing out on the market and not being able to afford in the future. If you’re in that boat I recommend having lots of conversations with people you trust and maybe don’t buy if you cannot make a decision based in confidence. In my experience buying anything based on fear doesn’t usually work out so well. 

The market was slowing and now it’s not: The market was slowing down for years and now it’s doing something completely different (unexpected). The thing is despite being in a global pandemic we’ve had artificially low inventory in light of COVID (less sellers listing their homes), more migration due to the ability to work from home, and shifts in what people want and need as a result of the pandemic. Oh, and mortgage rates dipped below 3% which has created truly excessive demand. It’s been the perfect storm to build what is likely the most competitive market we’ve seen.

Do you see how price growth was slowing until last year?

This upward price trek is happening in many places around the country. Here is a killer visual from Freddie Mac economist Len Kiefer:

A foreclosure wave is coming: There is talk about a coming wave of foreclosures in light of elevated forbearance rates. Here’s the thing. We don’t know for certain how forbearance is going to shake out because we’re still in the thick of this pandemic. Yet forbearance rates have been declining per the Mortgage Bankers Association and not everyone in forbearance is going to sell either (the stats literally show this). Moreover, the vast bulk of people in forbearance have equity to deploy (sell, refinance, etc…) instead of lose their home. I’m not sugar-coating anything and I’ll be the first to say there is uncertainty on the horizon in light of this. I do expect for some of these people to legitimately go into foreclosure, but at this present moment the stats don’t support a narrative of a massive wave of foreclosures materializing. We’ll see what happens of course, but this is what the stats are currently seeming to show.

Riding down the market: If the market did crash, which neighborhood do you want to ride down the market in? This is a relevant question that I heard first from Mike Gobbi. Remember, the equity in our homes means very little unless we are taking money out or selling.

Freakishly high price growth: We’ve had uncharacteristic price growth over the past year. The median price far outpaced where it should have theoretically gone. From my estimation it’s about $40,000 or 9% higher than it should theoretically be had we had a normal year last year (see visual). This could of course be the new normal, but no matter what I think we need to recognize the market is doing something right now that goes against a slowing trend we were experiencing in previous years as well as normal price growth.

The double-edged sword of appraisal waivers: We’ve seen so many more appraisal waivers this year. I get the necessity in light of appraisers being so backed up with a refinance boom and huge volume in the resale market, but what happens to prices over time with so many waivers? If some of these homes are essentially closing too high, does that help inflate the market? Of course let’s remember one sale doesn’t make or break a market, but if we start seeing lots of inflated sales that could certainly help speed up price appreciation. This is something to watch.

Market price cycles & the 7-year rule: Some people buy into the idea that the market changes every seven years, but that’s really not true because here we are in our tenth year of price growth (in Sacramento at least). But there is something to be said about real estate price cycles. Markets go up and they go down. That’s what they do. Bottom line. So at some point the most natural thing we can expect is for prices to go down. You know what wouldn’t be normal? If prices just kept rising forever…

Rates going up can help (eventually): The other day a Realtor friend said he thinks rates need to go up. You know we have a problem when real estate professionals start saying rates are too low. Just remember it’s possible we could see more buyers rush the market if they sense rates really are going to go up. The idea is to get in before they rise.

Look for price resistance: One of the things to watch is whether buyers are resisting prices. So far that is not happening. This doesn’t mean everyone can afford the market, but this month we’re likely to have our eighth month in a row of higher sales volume and pendings have been off the charts. In short, buyers are clearly pulling the trigger right now and we are not seeing resistance when it comes to playing the market.

Dude, this is so obviously a bubble: I get the sentiment. But remember, one of the ways we know something is a bubble is if it actually pops. Freddie Mac had a great article referencing this point years ago.

But inventory is low: There is the notion that inventory is low, so prices cannot decline. That’s a reasonable idea, but it’s only true until it’s not true. If 2020 taught us anything it’s that sometimes dynamics shift, so let’s be open to the idea of the market not having to behave a certain way despite low inventory. With that said, there is such a profound imbalance between supply and demand right now, so prices are clearly poised to rise in the immediate future. Nobody knows how long this run will go, but we would be wise to recognize inventory is about both the active listings on the market as well as demand for those listings. I find conversations about low supply can be lopsided at times if we only discuss what is on the market rather than factors that create demand. Remember, when demand changes, it can also affect supply.

Keep your credibility intact (for real estate professionals): To my real estate friends, I recommend knowing the stats more than ever and being able to articulate what the market is doing by highlighting numbers instead of being swayed by every new sensational idea. I imagine many real estate professionals (including appraisers) will lose credibility in a market like this by being swayed by clickbait, posting predictions that don’t come true, or promising a future that is not known. Remember, sometimes the best answer is “I don’t know” when people ask you to predict the future – while having intelligent discussion about all the moving parts. My advice? Keep your credibility intact by being rooted in data.

I DIDN’T ANSWER MY QUESTION: You may have noticed I didn’t answer the question in my title. But hopefully after reading my post you can understand why.

I hope that was interesting or helpful.

Questions: What did I miss? What is coming up in conversations right now for you? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: Appraisal, Appraiser, current prices, forbearance, foreclosure wave, housing market, housing market 2021, housing trends in sacramento, illogical, irrational, previous bubble, rapid price appreciation, real estate bubble, real estate bubble conversations, unsustainable market

Don’t hold your breath for a Covid discount

June 17, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 9 Comments

“Why is there not a pandemic discount? I don’t get it. The market has been going down.” Someone was angry with me recently after an estate appraisal didn’t come in low enough in his mind. The thought was prices should be dipping because we’re in a pandemic, but that hasn’t been happening.

The Truth: Lots of people expect the market to be weak right now.

The Takeaway: Let’s be careful not to impose ideas on the market about what we think should be happening. Instead, let’s look to the numbers to form our understanding. Likewise, it’s critical to be objective about the present and keep an eye on glaring uncertainties regarding the future. But let’s do this without viewing stats through a rose-colored lens or painting every conversation with a doom and gloom brush.

Anyway, that’s what’s on my mind…

———————— big monthly update below ————————

BIG MONTHLY UPDATE:

This is long on purpose. Skim or digest slowly. Your call. 

FREE MARKET UPDATE: On Monday June 22nd at 10am PST I’m giving a one-hour free market update via Zoom through the Sacramento Association of Realtors. Please sign up here.

WEEKLY VIDEO: Here’s my weekly video update to talk through the latest trends (shorter this week too). Watch below (or here).

Now some big topics…

FLAT PRICES: When we look at the latest price trends, it’s pretty flat. As you can see, the stats show modest price gains since last year. Granted, this month was more subdued than last month, so before writing home about this trend we need a few more months of data to fully understand the market. Remember, this doesn’t mean the market is dull because it’s actually quite competitive. It doesn’t mean every price range and neighborhood are flat either. But it does remind us prices haven’t been going insane despite the market feeling ultra-competitive. 

CRESTING FOR THE SEASON: Based on the next three images, it looks like the spring season has started to crest. We’re seeing a dip in prices and we’re having less multiple offers.

NEXT MONTH THOUGH: When sharing about flat prices, I’ve been tending to get reactions saying price metrics in a couple months may show an uptick again because mortgage rates have gone down lately. Look, that’s possible and we can adapt our narrative if that happens. To be fair, there’s nothing normal about life and real estate lately, so anything is possible for the future and we’re certainly experiencing some abnormal pent-up demand right now.

SALES VOLUME DOING THE LIMBO: Here’s a brand new visual to show most counties in May were down 30% or more in volume from 2019. Do you like this one? Should I keep making it?

LEARN TO MAKE A GRAPH: In case you didn’t see this on my YouTube channel, I put out a new tutorial for how to make a graph with three price metrics. This can be made for a zip code, city, county, etc… My advice? Set aside an hour in your schedule to make learning this happen. Becoming more visual changed the way I see the market and it frankly changed my career.

LOW RIDING: We had the second lowest month of sales volume for May in Sacramento County over the past twenty years.

BUT VOLUME IS ACTUALLY INCREASING: When we look at sales volume by the week instead of the month, we’re starting to see more sales close. In fact, for four weeks now we’ve seen an uptick. This change reflects pending contracts from about 4-6 weeks ago finally starting to close. I suspect in coming months we’ll keep seeing volume increase since pendings have been on fire lately.

MORE PENDINGS THAN NEW LISTINGS: For the fourth week in a row we literally had more pending contracts than new listings hit the market in the Sacramento Region. This shows buyers have been coming back to the market more quickly than sellers. Let’s remember buyers have strong incentive to get into contract quickly to lock in a historically low mortgage rate, but sellers just don’t have that same sense of urgency.

CHANGE BY THE RANGE: Here’s a look at what’s happening with different price ranges. These two images compare the change in April and May from 2019 to 2020. I don’t know that there’s anything revolutionary here, but what we want to watch over time is whether different price segments are slowing or speeding up. I think with a few more months of data we might have more to consider.

INVENTORY AT DIFFERENT PRICE POINTS: What’s happening with inventory in different price segments? Well, it’s actually pretty tight, but let’s watch above one million closely because it’s trending a little higher. Granted, it’s pretty normal to have 8-10 months of housing supply at the highest prices, but still we’ve seen more of an uptick lately.

2,651 FEWER LISTINGS SINCE THE PANDEMIC: Over the past three months there have been over 2,500 fewer listings compared to the same time last year. No wonder why it feels so competitive…

Now here are more visuals. As if this post wasn’t long enough already…. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share my content (please don’t copy my posts verbatim).

SACRAMENTO REGION:

SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

PLACER COUNTY:

EL DORADO COUNTY:

Okay, let’s wrap this thing up.

Questions: What stands out to you about the market right now? What are buyers and sellers saying? I’d love to hear your take.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: flat prices, housing trends in sacramento, listings, low mortgage rates, pandemic housing market, pandemic real estate trends, pending contracts, pendings, sacramento housing market, sacramento regional appraisal blog, seaonal real estate market

The fidget spinner “bubble” and softening real estate values

June 15, 2017 By Ryan Lundquist 16 Comments

I see fidget spinners everywhere. It’s incredible how popular they’ve become over the past few months, right? Though like any fad, the market is about to change. Well, that’s what my 11-year old son thinks anyway. He sensed a “bubble” brewing, so he unloaded some of his spinner inventory on the last day of school and ended up raking in $37 (little stud). 

Slower “spin” in real estate: About this time of year the real estate market begins to cool or “spin” more slowly so to speak. Though at times it feels controversial or blasphemous to say that because it goes against the grain of an ultra-positive real estate shtick. Yet no matter what, it’s normal for values to soften every year, and right now we seem to be in the beginning stages of that. This doesn’t mean the market is not incredibly competitive still or values have stopped increasing. It just means high altitude values in spring tend to subtly begin a downward descent right about now.

Pregnancy analogy: The problem is when the market slows we don’t see it in the stats yet for a couple months. It’s like taking a pregnancy test. You can be pregnant, but an over-the-counter test won’t tell you that for two weeks even though your body has 100% changed. Similarly, the real estate market may have begun to shift, but we might not see any difference in the stats yet. For example, almost every year July sales take longer to sell than June sales. It’s easy to then say, “The market changed in July.” But the truth is things actually began to change in May and June. After all, let’s remember the sales that closed in July got into contract in May and June. Thus when July sales stats show a slowing, it really tells us the market began to slow a couple months prior.

The Point: Whether spinners or real estate, let’s watch for signs of change so we can speak definitively about trends and give solid advice. Let’s be cautious to not talk about markets like they always stay the same either.

I hope that was helpful or interesting. Any thoughts?

–——-——- Big monthly market update (it’s long on purpose) ———–——-

If you didn’t know, sales volume last month was the strongest May we’ve seen over the past 4 years. But don’t get too excited because sales volume for the entire year is about the same as last year. No matter how we look at it, price metrics are up 7-9% from 2016 and they increased by 2-4% last month. One of the themes that won’t go away is we have a shortage of housing. In fact, housing supply is 22% lower right now compared to last year, and it’s been putting pressure on values to increase – particularly at entry-level price ranges. The tricky part lately is many contracts are getting bid up due to multiple offers (even beyond a reasonable appraised value). This can favor sellers accepting offers from buyers who have more cash to make up the difference between the appraised value and the contract price, though FHA sales stats show first-time buyers are still finding ways to close deals. In higher price ranges the market feels much softer, though we are still seeing multiple offers when properties are priced correctly. This is a good reminder that it’s possible for the market to feel more aggressive than actual value increases. In other words, having multiple offers doesn’t mean values are increasing rapidly or at all. Lastly, we are starting to hear more about lenders rolling out 100% financing to help buyers artificially afford higher prices (sounds healthy, right?). I could go on and on with words, but let me share some graphs to show the market visually.

DOWNLOAD 55 graphs (and a stat sheet) HERE: Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Sacramento County graphs this month (more here):

Sacramento regional graphs (more here):

DOWNLOAD 55 graphs (and a stat sheet) HERE: Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: Do you think we’re in a fidget spinner “bubble”? What else are you seeing in the real estate market? Did I miss anything? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: appraisers in Sacramento, fidget spinners, Home Appraisal, House Appraisal, housing trends in sacramento, increasing market, low housing inventory, market stats, May 2017 market, Real Estate Values, sacramento regional housing market, shortage of housing, summer 2017 real estate, trend graphs

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