Sacramento Appraisal Blog | Real Estate Appraiser

Real estate appraisals for divorce, estate settlement, loans, property tax appeal, pre-listing and more. We cover Sacramento, Placer and Yolo County. We're professional, courteous and timely.

inventory increasing

Buyers are making less aggressive offers

By 6 Comments

Good news. Buyers aren’t having to make aggressive offers like they used to (even when there are multiple offers). Let’s talk about this today. I suspect this is true in many areas across the country. I’d love to hear your take.

A green background with a wooden table at the bottom. The caption reads, "Buyers are making less aggressive offers."

UPCOMING (PUBLIC) SPEAKING GIGS:
8/11/22 Realtist Lunch & Learn (sign up here (open to anyone))
8/15/22 YouTube Live with Matt Gouge (details TBD)
8/25/22 State of Housing Brunch & Learn (sign up (for real estate community))

1) Buyers are finally getting in below the list price

On average properties sold about 2% below the original list price last month in the region, which means buyers are not having to endure insane bidding wars to get an offer accepted (most of the time). This is a far cry from last year when the average was 3% above the original list price. Keep in mind an average below doesn’t mean everything is selling below the list price. 

The sales price to original list price percentage. A line graph of the Sacramento region from 2018 onward.

2) Bidding wars aren’t completely dead like some think

“Everything is selling below the list price.” That’s what some people think, but it’s not true. Seriously, there are still multiple offers in today’s changing market. In fact, 47.0% of sales last month had more than one offer in the Sacramento region per MLS stats.

A line graph to show the percentage of multiple offers in the Sacramento region since January 2017. The graph sort of goes up and down depending on the time of year.

3) Offers from buyers are becoming less aggressive

The table below studies sales that ONLY had multiple offers, and the big takeaway is that when multiple offers happen, properties aren’t getting bid up way beyond the list price like last year. I realize this isn’t a shocker, but seeing it in the stats is important. There are also more properties today that had multiple bids and still sold below the original list price. Sellers, did you hear that? It’s easy to think, “multiple offers = selling way above the list price.” Nope. Today you might get a few offers at best, but buyers are getting used to the idea of making less aggressive offers and expecting concessions too.

4) There are fewer properties getting bid up 10% and more

Here’s another way to see the difference between last year and this year. I know, there are way too many orange dots, but can you spot more sales last year going above the original list price (above the 0% line)? There were so many more properties last year that sold above 10% too. Also, there’s been a big drop in the number of sales this year (fewer dots).

A scatter graph to show the percentage of properties with multiple offers and how much they sold in relation to their original list price

A scatter graph to show the percentage of properties with multiple offers and how much they sold in relation to their original list price (2021 stats)

5) A spike in supply is giving buyers more control

We’ve seen a sharp uptick in available listings over the past few months, which means buyers are gaining power from sellers and having more time to make decisions. These stats below only represent listings on August 1st, which might seem like a strange thing to publish, but the monthly trend actually looks the same. Anyway, there are about 1,800 more listings than last year, which is also still a few hundred lower than the pre-pandemic normal. As I’ve been saying, a spike in inventory is NOT due to more sellers listing their homes. This is really about fewer pending contracts happening. In other words, the change in supply is due to a change in demand. Technically, the number of listings looks almost normal, but the abnormal thing happening right now is a 30%+ drop in pending volume (more on that soon).

This bar chart shows the number of active listings on August first each year in the Sacramento region

Check out the number of available listings in today’s market compared to last year at the same time. Keep in mind we saw massive price growth from one year ago, which explains more listings above $500K in particular.

This bar chart compares the number of active listings in the Sacramento region by price range (comparison of 2021 and 2022).

CapRadio Interview: Last week I did an interview with our local NPR station. We talked about housing demand, uncertainty salad, and lots of things. It’s about ten minutes. Check it out here if you wish.

MARKET STATS: I’ll have lots of stats out this week on my social channels, so watch Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn, and Facebook.

Thanks for being here. I truly appreciate it.

Questions: What are you seeing happen with offers right now? What advice do you have for buyers or sellers? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

The problem of not listening in a slower market

By 9 Comments

It’s not easy to listen when the market is slowing. This is true for sellers taking in pricing advice, and it’s also true for the average person reading national headlines. Let’s talk about this. Then for those interested I have a big market update. Anything to add?

Sellers not listening: All year it seems sellers have struggled to listen to pricing advice from their real estate agents. I guess I can understand because they’ve had nothing but “hot” headlines for six years. But I think there’s another issue too. Maybe we’re seeing some of the effect of sellers having more real estate data at their disposal than ever because of Zillow, Redfin, Metrolist, blogs… So right or wrong, we have sellers who now they think they know better than anyone. Whatever the case, sellers are making real mistakes out there by not listening to pricing advice and instead pricing for a much hotter market than we actually have. In case it’s useful, I wrote an article in Comstock’s magazine with some practical advice for sellers.

Listening to national headlines: There have been sensational headlines about the market beginning to crash, and it’s difficult at times to think past these headlines and be objective. Let’s remember though that headlines are designed to get clicks, and a headline may or may not mean anything for a local market. My advice? Don’t let any headline cloud your judgement of local trends.

Listening without enough context: This sounds like such a geeky point, but hang in here with me because it matters. Lots of times in real estate we end up comparing the current year with the previous year, and that’s actually a good thing. But my sense is we’re missing something if we pay too much attention to last year only and ignore prior years. In Sacramento at least it’s been a few seasons since we’ve had a dull fall, so it’s easy to forget what that feels like. Moreover, if we look at current inventory levels beginning to push a two-month housing supply, that looks huge compared to the past couple years. But if we look at inventory from 2014 when we had a dull fall season, it was hovering between 2 to 2.75 months at the time. This reminds us it’s possible to have higher inventory at this time of year without the market utterly tanking. I don’t say this to diminish the importance of rising housing supply right now, but only to highlight the need to look to a few more years of data as we interpret what is happening. After all, sometimes pulling stats is like pulling comps. If we only look at the past 90 days of sales, that might not be enough. At times we need a much wider view to really see the market. The same thing happens with real estate data. Know what I’m saying?

I hope that was helpful. Do you “hear” what I’m saying?

—–——– Big local monthly market update (long on purpose) —–——–

The market has been slowing. Duh, we know that. Everyone’s talking about it. Let me unpack what I mean below with some comments on some of the bigger themes right now:

Coffee vs. skimming: This post has lots of information. It’s designed to skim until you find something you want to read, or pour a cup of coffee and really spend some time digesting stuff.

BIG ISSUES IN SACRAMENTO:

Prices softening: Most price metrics in the region softened between 1-2% last month, though the median price in Sacramento County was flat. Around this time of year we normally see prices dip (as graphs show below).

Slowing momentum: We know the market is slowing for the season, but it’s also slowing down in terms of overall momentum. What I mean is in years past we’d look at stats and see price metrics were up a good 8-10% over the year, but these days they’re only up closer to 4-6% instead.

Slowing rent: Rent growth has been flattening lately, which is a good thing since rents sprinted way ahead of actual wage growth. Keep in mind this doesn’t mean rents have declined. It just seems the rent trend is flattening.

Sales volume is not crashing: One of the bigger issues to watch to know if a market is crashing is a change in sales volume. In other words, if properties stop selling, we have a big problem. Last month sales volume was down about 6% in the region and 2.6% in Sacramento County. Uh oh, is that a warning sign? Look, this is important to watch over time to know if we have a trend on our hands, but before making too much of one month of data, let’s look to the bigger picture. The truth is sales volume is actually higher so far this year in the region than last year and it’s up 1% in Sacramento County too. No mater how we look at it, volume has actually been strong. This isn’t spin, but fact. Please see my charts below. So on one hand let’s watch these next months carefully because it could be a problem if monthly sales volume does start to come in lower, but let’s also not give laser focus to a weaker August while ignoring the bigger context either.

Inventory is definitely up: It’s really noticeable to see more inventory right now. Even my non-real estate wife has said she’s seeing more listings when driving around town. Housing supply is actually up 25% compared to the same time last year, and it’s literally the first time in three years since we’ve had more than a two-month supply of homes for sale. Obviously if the rate of increase keeps climbing and the market doesn’t absorb new listings, we could have a problem on our hands. But let’s also remember when the market was very dull in the fall of 2014 we saw inventory hover between 2 to 2.75 months at the time.

Taking longer to sell: It took five days longer to sell last month compared to the month before. And this year it took 4 day longer than last year at the same time. So the market has slowed down from last year, but it’s definitely slowing from the past few months too. Sellers, did you hear that? You are losing power in this market and buyers are gaining it. My advice? Price according to listings that are actually getting into contract rather than the highest glowing sales from the spring. This week I talked with an agent about the market feeling really soft in a particular area because listings weren’t moving. But sometimes I wonder if it’s the market or just overpriced listings. From my vantage point almost every listing in the neighborhood was priced 5-10%+ too high, so it wasn’t a real shocker they weren’t selling.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

DOWNLOAD 72 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

BIG QUESTIONS:

1) How did the market change from last year?

2) How did the market change from July to August?

3) Is sales volume really crashing right now?

4) How does the current market compare to the previous peak?

2005 vs CURRENT: A few months ago I talked about peak prices because some metrics were showing 2005 levels. But with the market softening right now prices are growing further apart from the “top” so to speak.

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

I hope that was helpful.

DOWNLOAD 72 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: Do you think sellers are struggling to listen right now? What are you seeing out there in the market? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Stepping on the real estate scale (at the right time of day)

By 6 Comments

Values are starting to decline. The market is sliding. Price reductions are increasing. This is exactly what we start to hear around August as the market has transitioned from spring to summer. But is the market really crashing? It could be, but sometimes the issue is simple in that we’re not weighing the market in the right context. Today let’s look at a helpful scale analogy and then unpack the Sacramento market in depth (for those interested). Any thoughts?

42512389 - white scale on a wooden table top view, fitness and weight loss concept

A Scale Analogy: Imagine being on a diet and stepping on a scale in the morning before breakfast and then again at night after eating all day. What would happen? Well, it’s going to look like you gained some weight during the day because the body is light and empty in the morning and naturally heavier at night after a day of eating. Unless you want to punish yourself with thoughts of weight gain, the key for using a scale would be to weigh yourself every day around the same time so you are comparing the same context each day. Otherwise when comparing one context (morning) with a different context (night), it might look like you gained weight when you might have actually lost some.

The Big Point: In real estate we have to consider what it looks like to weigh the market. Often at this time of year we start hearing things like, “Values are starting to tank”, when in reality the market may simply be softening for the season. The problem is we don’t see the softening though because we’re stepping on the scale at the wrong time of day so to speak. For example, if we compare stats from June to July, it looks like the market is declining in value since stats have sagged. Yet if we step back and weigh the market in context by comparing June/July 2016 data vs June/July 2015 data, we see stats also sagged last year. Bingo! This helps us see it’s normal for the market to soften up at this time of year (of course it could be declining, but that’s a different post). In short, if we want to get better at seeing the market it’s critical to compare the latest month of data with the same month last year. Otherwise it’s very easy to start making market claims when the truth is we just might be misreading the trend. If you want to use bigger chunks of data like quarters, that’s fine too. Just compare the past quarter today with the same time period last year. You can also look at many years of data to get an even better sense of seasonal trends.

—-—–—– And here’s my big monthly market update  ———–—–

Big monthly market update post - sacramento appraisal blog - image purchased from 123rfTwo ways to read the BIG POST:

  1. Scan the talking points and graphs quickly.
  2. Grab a cup of coffee and spend time digesting what is here.

DOWNLOAD 62 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file. Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Slowing Market (Quick Summary): The hot spring season is definitely transitioning to a slower market. What do I mean? It’s taking slightly longer to sell today compared to last month, the median price and average sales price declined from the previous month, inventory saw a 20% increase from June (it’s still really low though), and price reductions have been more common. Yet at the same time the market is actually stronger this year as it was taking 4 days longer to sell last year and price metrics are a good 7-10% higher this year too. Overall the market feels fairly “hot” under $300,000, but there has been notable price resistance at higher price levels. These days well-priced properties are going quickly, but otherwise buyers can smell a high price from a mile away – and they’re not biting. It’s easy to think the market is starting to turn or tank, but it’s normal for the market to soften at this time of year. Unless we begin to see otherwise, right now it looks like we are seeing what seems like the start of a typical seasonal downtrend.

Presidential Election & the Market: We’re hearing lots of talk about how the market is strong because it’s a presidential year, but let’s remember the market is doing what it is doing as a result of years of unfolding trends. The presidential election doesn’t all of a sudden trump (no pun intended) the factors that have been driving the market for years and have caused the market to be where it is today. For context, values in Sacramento were increasing rapidly in 2004, utterly tanking in despair in 2008, recovering in 2012 (due to cash investors and 4% rates), and now the market is figuring out how to be normal after modest value increases this spring. Sure, there could be some impact because it’s a presidential year, but let’s defuse the hype and not overstate it. Take a look at the stats and graphs below and see if you can discern any real difference because this year is a presidential year.

Sacramento County:

  1. The median price is 100% higher than it was in early 2012.
  2. There were only 4 sales under $100K last month (single family detached).
  3. Sales volume has been about the same this year compared to last year.
  4. FHA volume is down about 8% this year compared to 2015.
  5. FHA sales were 26% of all sales last month.
  6. Cash sales were only 12% of all sales last month.
  7. It took an average of 27 days to sell a home last month, which is 2 days more than the previous month (and 4 less days compared to last year).
  8. REOs were only 2% of all sales last month and short sales were 2.7%.
  9. There is only 1.69 months of housing supply in Sacramento County, which is 11% lower than it was last year at the same time.
  10. The median price declined by 2.7% last month and the average sales price also declined, though both are 10% higher than they were last year at the same time.

Some of my Favorite Graphs this Month:

Median price since 2013 in sacramento county

price metrics since 2015 in sacramento county - look at all

inventory - July 2016 - by home appraiser blog

CDOM in Sacramento County - by Sacramento Regional Appraisal Blog

Bottom of the Market in Sacramento

inventory in sacramento county Since 2011 - by sacramento appraisal blog

seasonal market in sacramento county sales volume 6

Interest Rates Since 2001 layers of the market in sacramento county - by sacramento appraisal blog

SACRAMENTO REGIONAL MARKET:

  1. The median price is 97% higher than it was in early 2012.
  2. It took 1 day longer to sell last month compared to June (but 4 less days compared to July 2015).
  3. Sales volume is about the same as it was last year at the same time.
  4. Cash sales were 14% of all sales last month.
  5. Cash sales volume is 6% lower this year than last year.
  6. FHA sales were 22% of all sales last month.
  7. FHA sales volume is down nearly 8% this year so far.
  8. There is 1.96 months of housing supply in the region right now, which is just about the same as last year during this time.
  9. The median price, average sales price, and avg price per sq ft all declined last month from June, though they’re all up 7-8% from last year.
  10. REOs were only 2% of all sales last month and short sales were the same.

Some of my Favorite Regional Graphs:

days on market in placer sac el dorado yolo county by sacramento appraisal blog interest rates inventory median price in sacramento regional market by sacramento appraisal blog - market median price and inventory in sacramento regional market 2013 median price sacramento placer yolo el dorado county Regional Inventory - by Sacramento regional appraisal blog Regional market median price - by home appraiser blog sacramento region volume - FHA and conventional - by appraiser blog

PLACER COUNTY:

  1. Today’s median price is 72% higher than it was in early 2012.
  2. It took 3 more days to sell a house last month than the previous month (but 4 less days than last year at the same time).
  3. Sales volume was down about 11% in July 2016 compared to last July and is down slightly for the year about 3%.
  4. Both FHA sales and cash sales were each 15% of all sales last month.
  5. There is 2.25 months of housing supply in Placer County right now, which is up very slightly from last year at the same time (but up 30% from last month).
  6. The median price increased about 1% from the previous month, but for a better context it’s up 10% from last year at the same time.
  7. The average price per sq ft was $216 last month (was $202 last year at the same time).
  8. The average sales price was $480K last month (up about 11% from last year).
  9. Bank owned sales were only 1% of all sales last month.
  10. Short sales were 0.07% of sales last month.

Some of my Favorite Placer County Graphs:

days on market in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog interest rates inventory median price in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog months of housing inventory in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog number of listings in PLACER county - 2016 Placer County housing inventory - by home appraiser blog Placer County price and inventory - by sacramento appraisal blog Placer County sales volume - by sacramento appraisal blog

DOWNLOAD 62 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file. Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Question: Did I miss anything? Any other market insight you’d like to add? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Four things to remember about inventory and interest rates in Sacramento

By Leave a Comment

If you want to make sense of the unfolding story of real estate in Sacramento, be sure to keep an eye on inventory and interest rates. Take a minute to look over the graphs below to glean some context for how the market is evolving. Then let’s consider some thoughts further down.

sacramento real estate market trend graph median price interest rates inventory since 2011 - by sacramento appraisal blog

sacramento real estate market trend graph median price interest rates inventory since 2008 - by sacramento appraisal blog

sacramento real estate market trend graph median price interest rates unemployment inventory since 2008 - by sacramento appraisal blog

sacramento real estate market trend graph median price interest rates unemployment since 2001 - graph 2 - by sacramento appraisal blog

Four thoughts on inventory and interest rates:

  1. Sweet Spot: Rates under 4% are a sweet spot for buyers. What do I mean? Buying was very aggressive in Sacramento when interest rates were below 4% for 19 months in a row. When rates increased above 4% in June 2013 from 3.5% in May, there was definitely an impact as inventory began to increase. Of course cash investors started exiting the market around that time too, which is also a big part of this trend.
  2. 40 Year Context: Some buyers need convincing to jump into the real estate game instead of waiting for rates to decline. Unless The Fed changes its bond buying patterns (which can lower rates), higher rates are expected to ensue. Think about the context though. Over the past 40 years interest rates have literally only been below 5% since 2008. In other words, we are spoiled with cheap money (even now) compared to everyone in decades past.
  3. Economics 101 for the Long-Term: If rates and inventory continue to rise, it will have a cooling impact on values over the long haul. This is particularly true since cash buyers are not around like they were last year to absorb inventory and create more competition for the rest of the market.
  4. Short-Term Economics: For the immediate market, interest rates are still incredibly low and inventory is still very low. This means there is room for upward value movement. Or in other words, demand is still outweighing supply. Last month saw less than 950 sales, but keep in mind January is always slow. The key point for me is that at the end of the month there were over 2000 pending sales that had not closed yet. This shows that buyers are hungry for real estate (I’ll share a graph about this on Tuesday). Right now inventory is still hovering around 2.5 months, so there will be very decent competition to get into contract in coming time. It won’t be the blood bath of 2013 when there was only one month of housing supply, but 2.5 months is not that much to work with for real estate Spring fever.

Questions: Any thoughts or questions? What are you seeing out there in the trenches of the market? Feel free to comment below.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Skip to content