Market Trends

The booming FLAT market & rate addiction

April 11, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 9 Comments

The market is getting hotter, but it’s also pretty flat. Let’s talk about this as well as low rate addiction. Then for those interested I have a huge local market update.

Two things:

1) Competitive but flat market: The spring market is definitely competitive. Real estate agents are saying it’s “hot” and they’re right because buyers are hungry, sales volume is up, and it’s taking less time to sell. BUT prices also seem a little flat. I know, that sounds crazy since there’s so much competition, but it’s what the stats are showing. Let’s remember it’s possible to have a market with lots of competition while prices are more subdued or sideways. In other words, just because it’s competitive doesn’t mean prices are going nuts.

2) Rate addiction: Lower rates in 2019 have brought buyers back into the market after a big slump in 2018. It just goes to show how sensitive our market is to rate changes. In other words, it seems the market is struggling to move forward in glory without low rates. Sounds healthy, right?

Any thoughts?

—–——– Big local monthly market update (long on purpose) —–——–

Spring is feeling fairly normal so far and March was actually a strong month. Let’s talk about this.

THE SHORT VERSION:

Price growth is definitely slowing
Sales volume has slumped for 10 months
Volume was strong in March though
Choose comps wisely
I’m now publishing El Dorado County stats
Most metrics are doing what we’d expect for the spring
This post is long on purpose. Skim or pour a cup of coffee.

DOWNLOAD 70+ graphs: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

THE LONGER VERSION:

Here’s some of the bigger topics to consider right now.

Slow or flat price growth: The median price in Sacramento last month is actually the same as it was one year ago. It’s been a very long time since we’ve seen that happen. Otherwise most other price metrics in the region are up slightly between 2-3% over the year. This is a very modest change over twelve months and it reminds us price momentum is slowing. In many areas it seems prices are hovering around or lower than they were during the height of summer. But keep in mind this isn’t totally abnormal for the spring either because sometimes the new year immediately picks up right where it left off during the height of summer and other times the stats don’t get back to where they were until about May or so. Thus in some senses we’re still waiting to see how this spring market is going to unfold.

A more normal-ish spring: Overall most metrics look normal for the time of year. Prices ticked up again from the fall lull, it took eight less days to get into contract from last month, and there just isn’t that much on the market right now. Part of having an anemic number of listings is normal because the market doesn’t tend to hit its stride until April, but we’re also seeing the byproduct of buyers devouring listings because of low rates.

Choosing comps today: When a market is showing slower price growth it’s important to be realistic about comps. Sellers often want to get super aggressive, but I have some quick advice. Don’t. Give strong weight to similar properties that are getting into contract, and don’t price like it’s the rapidly increasing market from yesteryear. It’s not. Remember, in some areas you might pull comps and not see much price difference at all from the summer of 2018 or even from the spring of last year. Sellers, please remember you are not guaranteed price growth, so don’t price like you’re entitled to it.

Improving volume, sort of: Sales volume definitely made a rebound last month from the profound dullness we saw these past two quarters, yet it was still down 5.7% in the region from last March. And it’s down 7.2% over the past twelve months. Think about it this way. Being down seven percent doesn’t sound like much, but it means there’s been more than two thousand less sales this year in the Sacramento region compared to last year. It sounds bigger when we think of it that way, right? While volume improved this past month, we’ve still had ten months in a row of lower volume, and that’s the bigger story. Moreover, the first quarter was down 10% in the region compared to last year.

Pendings show us the market: Sales from March tell us more about what the market used to be like in January and February when these homes got into contract. So we have to look to the listings and pendings right now to understand where the current market is really at. As of now pendings look pretty strong, which suggests we’ll have another month of stronger volume in April.

Less offers (but actually more): Multiple offers are down about 12% in the region this year compared to last year, but the number of multiple offers actually increased from February to March. This is exactly what we’d expect to see happen in the spring, so don’t write home over it. But it’s still interesting to see.

Price sensitivity: One out of every two homes are getting multiple offers in Sacramento County, and it’s a reminder buyers need to bring strong offers. But sellers ought to price correctly too. Buyers are not desperate and willing to pay unrealistic prices, so I advise aiming for the market instead of that one mythical buyer who will overpay for some reason.

Waiting: We’re waiting and needing a few more months of data to see how this year is going to unfold. It’ll be most interesting to see if we get a little more price growth too (beyond just rebounding from the dull fall). The verdict is not in yet for this year, and there is still an element of uncertainty because we have a market that feels heavily driven by low rates for the time being.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

BIG ISSUES TO WATCH:

1) SPRING GETTING HOT TECHNICALLY: The market is heating up for 2019. We’re seeing price changes, lower inventory, and increased sales volume. So prices are up from the dull fall, but they’re also flat as you can see under #4.

The median price is actually down in Placer County, but I’d suggest waiting a few months before making a big deal out of that since Placer County doesn’t have many sales each month, so data can be a little more volatile Yet this hasn’t happened in a long time either.

2) SLOWING MOMENTUM: Despite the heating, stats show the market is slowing down when we look at the rate of change by year. Looking at monthly, quarterly, and annual numbers helps give a balanced view of things.

3) SALES VOLUME SLUMP for 10 months: It’s important to look at sales volume in a few ways to get the bigger picture. Here it is by month and year.

SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

Key Stats:

March volume down 4.9%
Volume is down 6.2% over the past 12 months

SACRAMENTO REGION:

Key Stats:

March volume down 5.7%
Volume is down 7.2% over the past 12 months

PLACER COUNTY:

Key Stats:

March volume down 5.5%
Volume is down 7.7% over the past 12 months

EL DORADO COUNTY:

Key Stats:

March volume down 8.9%
Volume is down 9.0% over the past 12 months

4) LAST YEAR VS THIS YEAR: It’s been a LONG time since we’ve seen some metrics almost identical to what they were last year. Can you see why I’m saying prices seem flat lately? This may not be true in every single price range or neighborhood of course, but this shows us price momentum is slowing. With that being said, it’s still okay to say the market is “hot”. It is. But I’d say competition is hotter than price appreciation.

Quick note on how NOT to use my content: Please don’t copy my post verbatim or alter the images in any way. I will always show respect for your original work and give you full credit, so I ask for that same courtesy. Here are 5 ways to share my content.

Now here are a bunch of images. Please enjoy.

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

EL DORADO COUNTY (more graphs here):

DOWNLOAD 70+ graphs: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What are you seeing out there? What do you think prices are doing? What are you hearing from buyers and sellers lately?

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Slumping volume & rising inventory

October 11, 2018 By Ryan Lundquist 12 Comments

Volume is down and inventory is up. Is that a problem? It sounds like a question for a high school Economics class, but here we are talking. Today I want to kick around two quick thoughts and then dive deeply into trends. I hope this helps – whether you’re local or not. Anything to add?

Here are the two big ideas to talk through right now.

This could be a problem: If sales volume continues to slump and inventory rises without buyers absorbing new listings, it could be a sign the market is changing in a big way. No matter how we look at it sales volume has been down lately in Sacramento. This was the weakest September since 2007 as volume was 14% lower than last year, and quarterly volume was down about 6% too. But keep in mind overall the year as a whole has actually seen strong volume, so it’s not like sales have fallen off the face of the earth (but it’s a concern we’re seeing the numbers change over the past few months). Housing inventory is also up and we haven’t seen it this high since 2014.

This could also be a dull fall: Despite the numbers seeming gloomy right now, they’re actually really consistent with what the market showed in 2014 when we had an extremely dull fall season. In fact, quarterly volume that year was down 6% and September volume was weak too. Does that sound familiar? Also, we have a nearly identical level of inventory right now compared to then too. I don’t say this to sugar coat any red flags in the market, but only to give pause and say what we’re seeing right now could simply be a very dull fall season.

We need more time: The truth is we need time to see how the market will pan out. For now we live in the tension of not knowing the future and interpreting trends for the present. My advice? Watch closely, be careful of hyped headlines, and be sure to take a wider view of the market too (let’s not forget 2014).

I hope that was helpful.

—–——– Big local monthly market update (long on purpose) —–——–

Prices actually went up last month. What the? Yes, the market is softening, but prices saw an uptick from August to September. That might seem confusing since we’re talking about the market cooling, but it highlights exactly what I’ve been talking about lately in that you don’t often see a market changing by looking at prices. You see change first in the listings and sales volume – and then prices eventually. This is exactly what’s happening right now.

Normal fall stuff: Last month it took longer to sell, the number of listings increased, and we saw a dip in sales volume. This is what we’d expect to see at this time of year, though the dip in volume was definitely sharp, which is something we’ll watch over time to see if it’s a byproduct of a dull fall or the start of a bigger trend. Beyond volume being down 6% this quarter, all the metrics look fairly normal for the fall. Well, they look normal for a dull fall season, that is.

Momentum slowing: Beyond a seasonal slowing we’re also seeing momentum slowing. I explain it here in a presentation I gave yesterday.

Interest rates rising: One of the reasons why we’re seeing volume slough could be due to interest rates rising. Earlier in the year it seemed buyers ran to the market in light of news of rising rates, but right now it doesn’t seem like buyers have their running shoes on any longer.

Buyers have more power, but not all power: The market is shifting to favor buyers, though sellers still have lots of power. Some buyers hear about a softening market and think they can make lowball offers, but that’s just not realistic. For instance, last month 40% of all sales had multiple offers in the region. That tells us the market isn’t dead despite softening. Buyers, did you hear that? Enjoy your newfound power, but you still have to bring strong reasonable offers.

Listings may have peaked: Overall housing inventory is up as I mentioned above, but it looks like the number of listings is starting to crest for the year. I’ve been watching listings closely over the past few weeks and it seems like they maybe peaked. We’ll know for sure in a month or so. This is exactly what we’d expect to see happen around this time of year, but it maybe seems like more welcome news right now. Let’s keep watching to know for sure.

Being technical about weak volume and inventory: Here’s the thing, we saw a very weak sales volume in September, and it ended up really impacting inventory levels. In fact, when looking at graphs the trend line shot up dramatically last month (see below). But technically what happened was the sales that normally would’ve sold were basically piled on to the number of listings instead, and that’s making the housing supply figure look much more dramatic. Ultimately the number of listings isn’t all that abnormal for the time of year, though if sales continue to dry up over time, then it becomes a much bigger deal to have even this number of “normal” listings.

Pricing lower this fall: Right now at the least it looks like we’re poised to have a dull fall like we had in 2014. These past couple of fall seasons the market simply felt a little more flat, but this year I expect we’ll see a more pronounced price difference between sales in the spring and the fall. Remember, if listings aren’t attracting offers, it’s because the market is no longer biting at that level. What is similar and getting into contract? That’s the big question, and when a fall season is more dull it’s important to be realistic about the need to potentially price lower. In other words, it’s probably not going to be enough to price a property 1% below the height of spring and expect a flood of buyers. Remember, it doesn’t matter what other listings are priced at if they’re not selling. The only thing that matters is what is actually getting into contract. That’s where we see the market.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

DOWNLOAD 63 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

BIG QUESTIONS:

1) How did the market change from last year?

2) How did the market change from August to September?

3) What’s happening with inventory?

4) What’s happening with sales volume?

SACRAMENTO COUNTY VOLUME:

Key Stats:

September volume down 14%
2018 volume down 1% (January to September)
Annual volume down 2% (past 12 months)
Volume has been strong this year, but it’s definitely down lately.

SACRAMENTO REGION VOLUME:

Key Stats:

September volume down 16%
2018 volume down 1.4% (January to September)
Annual volume down 1.8% (past 12 months)
Volume has been strong this year, but it’s definitely down lately.

PLACER COUNTY VOLUME:

Key Stats:

September volume down 19%
2018 volume down 3% (January to September)
Annual volume down 3% (past 12 months)
Volume has been strong this year, but it’s definitely down lately.

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

I hope that was helpful.

DOWNLOAD 63 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What do you see happening with volume and inventory right now? What are you hearing from buyers and sellers? I’d love to hear your take.

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Seeing the market over two decades

July 24, 2018 By Ryan Lundquist 17 Comments

Buckle up and let’s take a drive through the past 20 years. Where has the market been over these two decades? Since MLS recently made it much easier to extract older data, I had to do this post. I hope you find it useful or interesting – even if you aren’t in the Sacramento market.

SOME THINGS TO KEEP IN MIND:

1) Data: We are only as good as our data and our ability to understand. Some graphs below are very clear in their trends, but others probably aren’t meaningful because of massive data or an enormous price range.

2) Not back: Many lower-priced areas are not back to their price peak in 2005.

3) Back: Some well-established areas have exceeded previous peaks.

4) Different trends: Not all price ranges, locations, and property types have moved the same way, so let’s be cautious about sweeping generalizations about the entire market. After all, the condo market might be far different from the 2-4 unit market or vacant land.

5) Inflation: Prices might be similar today to where they were in 2005, but that doesn’t mean values are the same. I know, that’s so technical, but when we factor in inflation over 13 years, it’s really not the same thing when comparing today’s prices with prices from 13 years ago. Keep in mind the market today has far different dynamics from 2005 also.

6) Bubble: Graphs like this can often lead to conversations about a housing “bubble.” If it’s relevant, please read peak prices and an open letter to buyers worried about another housing bubble.

SIDE NOTE: I’ve been having major website issues over the past 2 months. I’ve switched hosts, and that should solve the problem of down time.

DOWNLOAD ALL GRAPHS: You can download all images as a zip file. I included both a web-friendly size and larger ones. Please use as you see fit (unaltered). If you post somewhere online I always appreciate a link back.

Rosemont:

River Park:

Meadowview:

Vacant Residential Land:

Million Dollar Sales:

Pocket / Greenhaven:

Rancho Cordova:

Sierra Oaks:

Loomis:

East Sacramento:

Duplex Sales:

Gold River:

Land Park:

Elk Grove:

Garden of the Gods:

Sales under $50K in Sacramento County:

Del Paso Manor:

Tahoe Park:

Fair Oaks:

Treelake / Ashley Woods (Granite Bay):

Condo Sales in Sacramento County (and Downtown):

Colonial Heights:

College Glen:

Davis:

West Sacramento:

Bella Vista High School Boundaries:

Arden Park:

Folsom:

Arden Manor:

95815 Zip Code:

4-Unit Sales in Sacramento County:

Roseville:

I hope this was interesting or even fascinating. I’m intrigued and excited about having more data at my disposal (thank you Metrolist). Thanks everyone for your graph suggestions too. I reached out on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn and got to most of what people asked for, though I couldn’t do them all.

Questions: What are your thoughts about the market after seeing the graphs above? I’d love to hear your take.

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The problem of overpricing in real estate

July 5, 2018 By Ryan Lundquist 15 Comments

Overpricing is a problem. You’d think in such a “hot” market that it wouldn’t be an issue, but it is. I’m not trying to dog sellers, but let’s talk about some of the most common pricing mistakes right now. I hope this helps.

1) Getting married to the list price: Sometimes it’s like sellers get married to a lofty list price and become unwilling to budge – even when buyers are refusing to pay that much. It’s as if sellers get paralyzed and cannot move beyond a clearly unrealistic price. My advice? Listen to the market and budge on price as needed.

2) I need this amount to move: I’ve encountered a few sellers recently who priced based on how much money they needed to move. But the market doesn’t care about personal finances or plans. The market only cares about paying a reasonable price for the property.

3) Headlines: At times sellers hear sensational headlines like, “Values are increasing more rapidly than ever,” so they price according to a headline rather than similar sales in the neighborhood market.

4) Out of touch with picky buyers: Buyers these days tend to be more picky than ever about what they purchase, but I’m not sure sellers are really in tune with how finicky buyers are about price, location, and condition. You’d think buyers would be so desperate to get into contract and pay anything because of a housing shortage, but they’re actually quite patient in many cases because they want to wait for the right property and feel like they’re paying a fair price. My advice? Price for real buyers in the neighborhood market rather than that one mythical “unicorn” buyer who is going to pay more for some reason.

5) Sales instead of comps: The most common pricing mistake I see is pricing according to a sale down the street that really isn’t comparable. So a seller says, “I know that house is totally remodeled with a pool, but someone’s going to pay the same amount for my house.” My advice? Price according to similar homes that are actually getting into contract rather than dissimilar properties. Be careful about hijacking price per sq ft figures too.

6) The fallacy of summer: We hear that summer is the hottest real estate season, but the spring season is actually the hottest in many markets throughout the country. By the time summer rolls around the market is actually beginning to cool because it’s been hot for almost two quarters already. During summer listing volume is just about to peak for the year, and that means it starts to take longer to sell, prices often begin to soften for the season, and buyers gain more power to negotiate. My advice? Be realistic about prices today.

7) Zillow: I can’t tell you how often I’ve heard, “But Zillow says my house is worth X amount.” I know, Zillow says stuff like, “We’re only a starting point and a ballpark figure.” Yet in my experience sellers rely heavily on the Zestimate and very often treat it like a definitive ending point rather than a ballpark. Remember, Zillow doesn’t know anything about condition, upgrades, smell, etc… Sometimes Zillow nails the value, but other times it’s off by a substantial amount – even in a tract neighborhood. My advice? Take “The Big Z” with a grain of salt.

8) Other: What else are you seeing out there?

I hope this was interesting or helpful. In light of the market beginning to cool for the season, I thought scratching out these thoughts might be helpful and even save sellers some money (and heartache).

Questions: Which mistake do you see most often? Any stories or insight to share? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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