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Market Trends

Aggressive demand but modest value appreciation in Sacramento

May 12, 2015 By Ryan Lundquist 12 Comments

Is it just me, or has the market felt a bit funky? On one hand demand has felt very aggressive, but actual value appreciation has been fairly modest overall. Let’s take a look at the latest trends in the Sacramento housing market below. If you’re local, I hope the 10 quick trends help give you some talking points with clients. If you’re not local, what are you seeing in your area?

the big picture in real estate

One Paragraph on the Market: More listings came on the market last month, but buyers readily absorbed them. Pendings are still a good 20%+ higher than last year in the Sacramento area, and clean and well-priced properties are getting into contract very quickly. As aggressive as demand has felt though, we haven’t seen the rapid appreciation this Spring that we saw in 2013. Values more or less have experienced a normal seasonal increase, though when compared to sales during the Fall of 2014, prices are clearly MUCH higher since there was a lull in the market last Fall. Overall price levels now generally seem to have recovered back to the height of last Summer (or even a bit higher depending on the area). Well-priced listings are getting into contract VERY quickly, and there have been multiple offers. But at the same time buyers are tending to overlook properties that are overpriced and anything with an adverse location or a lack of upgrades. As housing inventory presumably begins to increase over the next few months, keep an eye out for more price reductions, unrealistic expectations from sellers, and buyers gaining more power from sellers. Remember too the market does not behave the same at every price level or in every neighborhood.

Two ways to read my big monthly market post:

  1. Scan the talking points and graphs quickly.
  2. Grab a cup of coffee and spend a few minutes digesting what is here.

DOWNLOAD 52 graphs HERE for free (zip file): Please download all 52 graphs here as a zip file (or send me an email). Use them for study, for your newsletter, or even some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share.

Sacramento County Market Trends for April 2015:

  1. The median price in Sacramento County is $280,000.
  2. The median price is 5.6% higher than one year ago (April 2014).
  3. It took 42 days to sell a house last month.
  4. Cash sales were only 16.5% of all sales last month.
  5. FHA sales were 27% of all sales in Sacramento County last month.
  6. Sales volume was 9.2% higher this April compared to last April.
  7. There is 1.5 months of housing inventory (1.8 months last April).
  8. The average price per sq ft is 182 (7% higher than last April).
  9. The average sales price is $310,000 (5.7% higher than last year).
  10. It took 3 days longer to sell a house this April compared to last.

CDOM in Sacramento County - by Sacramento Appraisal Blog months of housing inventory by sacramento appraisal blogprice metrics since 2014 in sacramento countyinventory during fall and winter 2 - by sacramento appraisal blog

median price and inventory since 2013 - by sacramento appraisal blog

layers of the market in sacramento county - by sacramento appraisal blogPlacer County Market Trends for April 2015:

  1. The median price in Placer County is $391,500.
  2. The median price is 6.9% higher than one year ago (April 2014).
  3. It took 41 days to sell a house last month.
  4. Cash sales were 17% of all sales last month.
  5. FHA sales were 20% of all sales in Sacramento County last month.
  6. Sales volume was 27.5% higher this April compared to last April.
  7. There is 1.9 months of housing inventory (2.5 months last April).
  8. The average price per sq ft is 200 (3% higher than last April).
  9. The average sales price is $441,163 (3.8% higher than last year).
  10. It took 10 days shorter to sell a house this April compared to last.

days on market in placer county by sacramento appraisal blogmonths of housing inventory in placer county by sacramento appraisal blogPlacer County median price and inventory - by home appraiser blogPlacer County sales volume - by sacramento appraisal bloginterest rates inventory median price in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog

Regional Market Trends for April 2015 (Sac, Placer, Yolo, El Dorado):

  1. The median price in the Sacramento Region is $325,000.
  2. The median price is 9.4% higher than one year ago (April 2014).
  3. It took 44 days to sell a house last month.
  4. Cash sales were 16.9% of all sales last month.
  5. FHA sales were 23.7% of all sales in Sacramento County last month.
  6. Sales volume was 10.5% higher this April compared to last April.
  7. There is 1.7 months of housing inventory (2.1 months last April).
  8. The average price per sq ft is 192 (7.2% higher than last April).
  9. The average sales price is $360,351 (6.9% higher than last year).
  10. It took the same amount of time to sell in April 2015 and April 2014.

days on market in placer sac el dorado yolo county by sacramento appraisal blog

months of housing inventory in region by sacramento appraisal blog

median price and inventory in sacramento placer yolo el dorado county

number of listings in Placer Sacramento Yolo El Dorado county - by home appraiser blog

interest rates inventory median price in sacramento regional market by sacramento appraisal blog

Questions: How do you think sellers and buyers are feeling about the market right now? What are you seeing out there?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: Appraisal, Appraiser, appraisers, average price, average price per sq ft, cash investors, FHA buyers, increase of value, Market Trends, Median Price, Real Estate Market, real estate spring 2015, Sacramento Real Estate Market, sales volume, seasonal market, trend graphs in sacramento

High demand persists in the Sacramento real estate market

April 9, 2015 By Ryan Lundquist 6 Comments

What is the real estate market doing? That’s not always a quick 10-second answer you can give someone while standing in line at Starbucks. Yet here’s the scoop: Demand is very high, values are up, and inventory is down. We are seeing exactly what we would expect to see in a Spring market, and I’d like to invite you to unpack the market with me in this post so you can share specific trends with your clients.

buyers are ready to pull the trigger - image purchased by sacramento appraisal blog and used with permission

One Paragraph to Explain the Market: The market is having a normal Spring so far. Prices are up, sales volume is increasing, and housing inventory is down. Buyers are hungry out there, which is seen with pendings being 25% higher in the regional market in March 2015 compared to March 2014. Cash sales continue to decline in volume, while FHA buyers are gaining a greater share of the market. Short sales and bank-owned sales are still hovering at very low levels, though there was a slight uptick in volume this past quarter (nothing to sound the alarm about). It took an average of 51 days to sell a house in the region last month, which is 4 days longer than it took last year (thus while the market feels hot, we can also see the market is slowing down too). Well-priced listings are going quickly and experiencing multiple offers, but properties with adverse locations and/or a lack of upgrades are tending to sit on the market. There is a huge demand for quality inventory, yet at the same time the market is price sensitive since buyers are showing discretion. Many neighborhoods over these past few months experienced a seasonal increase in value (not all areas though). Remember in coming time that inventory historically sees a huge increase from April onward, and that can very easily change the tone of the market.

NOTE: This post is longer since it is my big monthly market update. I am experimenting with more graphs and less text. Do you miss the numbers and bullet points? I’d love some feedback.

Two ways to read this post:

  1. Scan the talking points and graphs quickly.
  2. Grab a cup of coffee and spend a few minutes digesting what is here

DOWNLOAD 62 graphs HERE for free (zip file): Please download all 62 graphs here as a zip file (or send me an email). Use them for study, for your newsletter, or even some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share.

SACRAMENTO REGION (Sac, Placer, Yolo, El Dorado):

median price and inventory in sacramento placer yolo el dorado county

days on market in placer sac el dorado yolo county by sacramento appraisal blog

months of housing inventory in region by sacramento appraisal blog

number of listings in Placer Sacramento Yolo El Dorado county - by home appraiser blog

interest rates inventory median price in sacramento regional market by sacramento appraisal blog

SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

Median price and inventory since 2012 by sacramento appraisal blog price metrics since 2014 in sacramento county

cash in sacramento county

fha and cash in sacramento county - by sacramento appraisal blog

Volume and cash since 2009 - by Sacramento Appraisal Blog

reo and short sales in sacramento county

months of housing inventory by sacramento appraisal blog

CDOM in Sacramento County - by Sacramento Appraisal Blog

sales volume through feb 2015 in sacramento county

sales volume in march in Sacramento County since 2001

PLACER COUNTY:

Placer County median price and inventory - by home appraiser blog

days on market in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog months of housing inventory in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog

Placer County median price since 2012 - by home appraiser blog

Placer County sales volume - by sacramento appraisal blog

interest rates inventory median price in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog

Questions: How do you think sellers and buyers are feeling about the market right now? What are you seeing out there?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: cash buyers, cash investors, El Dorado County, FHA buyers, graphs, Home Appraiser, House Appraiser, increasing values, Market Trends, Placer County, Sacramento County, Sacramento Real Estate Market, Sacramento real estate trends, sacramento regional market, Yolo County

Why comparing the right numbers matters so much in real estate

March 3, 2015 By Ryan Lundquist 5 Comments

You can make numbers say whatever you want in real estate. Sometimes this happens on purpose, but other times it’s an accident. That’s why it’s so important to know how to make the right comparisons. Below I will show you an example of how you can look at the numbers and end up saying two completely different things about the market. Both might be technically true, yet one of the statements really doesn’t reflect the real trend. In an era of big data in real estate, knowing how to communicate these things to clients is key. Enjoy.

Looking at the numbers - image purchased and used with permission by sacramento appraiser blog

THE WRONG COMPARISON: (Volume is down by 30%)

December to January

When we compare January with December, it’s easy to get an inaccurate picture of the market (but it happens all the time in media outlets). In the case above, we see a 30% decline, and this sounds very alarming. Yet volume from December to January almost always decreases by 20-25% easily in any given year in Sacramento, so 30% in not something to freak out about.

Truth: Comparing the previous month to the current month can sometimes give us the wrong picture about the market – especially in the midst of a strong seasonal trend. Volume is ALWAYS lower in January (see this quick graph as proof).

THE RIGHT COMPARISON: (Volume is down by 4.5%)

Month to Month

When we compare January 2015 with January 2014, we see sales volume was down by only 4.5% this year. That’s a far cry from sounding the alarm that “VOLUME IS DOWN BY 30%”. In this case the most accurate thing we can say about the market is that volume was 4.5% lower this January.

Truth: Comparing the current month to the same month last year tends to give us important insight because we are using the same context for comparison. I’m not saying to not compare back-to-back months, but only to get in the habit of looking at the same month last year too. This is especially important when dealing with January and February data since they are typically slower months in terms of closed escrows. Remember too that last month’s sales tell us what the market used to be like when these properties went into contract 30-60+ days ago, but current listings and pendings tell us about the market right now.

Questions: Any thoughts or insight? I’d love to hear your take.

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Filed Under: Market Trends, Resources Tagged With: appraisals, Appraiser, appraiser blog in sacramento, appraiser in Sacramento, big data in real estate, how to look at numbers, knowing the numbers, making data say what you want, Market Trends, real estate data, Sacramento Real Estate Market, sales volume

Where the market went last year and where it is now in Sacramento

January 13, 2015 By Ryan Lundquist 10 Comments

Not sensational, but fairly normal. That’s a great way to describe last year’s real estate market in Sacramento. There was a nominal uptick in value during the first part of the year, but otherwise values were very flat. Let’s take a look at the year as a whole below and delve into some December trends too.

Two ways to read this post:

  1. Scan the talking points and graphs quickly.
  2. Grab a cup of coffee and spend a few minutes digesting what is here.

Email me for the graphs: If you would like all the graphs in this post (and many more), send me an email. You can use these in your newsletter, some on your blog, and some in other social spaces. See my sharing policy for ways to share.

Sacramento County 2014 Year in Review - smaller

Sacramento County Year-End Stats:

1) Median Price ended at $265,000
2) Average Sales Price ended at $293,646
3) Average Price per sq ft ended at $170
4) Sales volume was down 7.7% in 2014 compared to 2013.
5) FHA sales increased by 11.3% from 2013.
6) There were 38% less cash sales this year.
7) Short sale volume was down 64% from 2013 level.
8) Bank-owned sale volume was down 18.9% from 2013.

1) Values increased only a few percent over the year:

price metrics since 2014 in sacramento county

How much did values rise last year? The median price increased 6% from December 2013 to December 2014, the average price per sq ft increased by 3.5%, and the average sales price increased by 4.5%. It’s easy to look at the median price at 6% and think, “Sweet. Values increased by 6%”, but an increase in median price at 6% doesn’t necessarily translate into an actual 6% boost in value to every property. When we look at other metrics such as price per sq ft and average sales price, those metrics are even lower than 6%. All things considered, the actual increase in value was modest at probably 3-4% at best.

context for median price since the real estate bubble by sacramento appraisal blog

2) Inventory increased this year (declined in December):

inventory in sacramento county  Since 2011 - by sacramento appraisal blog

Housing inventory was flirting with 2 to 2.5 months for much of the year. This means there were generally 2 to 2.5 months worth of houses for sale at any given moment. The peak was 2.75 months in November, and the low was last month at 1.79 months. Remember, inventory almost always declines during December, so don’t make too much of the low number (it doesn’t mean buyers flooded the market).

months of housing inventory by sacramento appraisal blog

During November and December people tend to be thinking of turkey and gifts instead of real estate, so it’s not a huge surprise to see sparse inventory. Moreover, it’s natural to see a lower inventory right now since many owners do not want to list their properties until February or March when the market begins to heat up. As January unfolds though, listings are slowly starting to come back on the market. As you can see, inventory is not the same at every price level, and it was very low in December other than above the $1M range.

 3) Sales volume was down 7.7% in 2014 compared to last year:

sales volume through nov 2014 in sacramento county

Sales volume was down by 7.7% this year, which translated to 1,310 less sales on MLS this year compared to 2013. As you can see by the graphs above and below, volume this year was much lower than previous years. There were more sales in December than November, but that’s not a surprise since November had a sluggish sales volume (and December often has more sales than November, but technically many of these sales got into contract in November).

sales volume in Sacramento County since 2001

 4) FHA purchase volume increased by 11% this year:

FHA sales since 2009 in Sacramento County by sacramento appraisal blog

FHA has been making a big come-back in the market. Why? There are less cash investors, and FHA has been one of the strongest options for many buyers trying to purchase with little money down. This year FHA sales represented about 24% of all sales, whereas last year FHA was just under 20% of the market. Remember that FHA used to represent over 30% of the market from 2009 to 2012, so there is room for continued FHA growth. This year there are bound to be some more competitive conventional products hit the market, and the 90-day flipping rule will thwart some FHA buyers, but otherwise FHA should still be a relevant force to reckon with in housing in 2015.

5) The Fall showed a normal real estate seasonal cycle:

cooler price in Fall 2 - by sacramento appraisal blog inventory during fall 2 - by sacramento appraisal blog

sales volume in fall through 2014 - by sacramento appraisal blog

It’s easy to get alarmed when prices soften during the Fall, but that’s normal. There are simply fewer sales, and inventory tends to be a bit higher too.

6) There were 38% less cash sales this year:

cash sales and volume in sacramento county - by home appraiser blog

Having 38% less cash sales in 2014 made the market feel a whole lot different than 2013. This dynamic really cooled off values and brought about a more “normal” feel. In 2012 and 2013 there was an extraordinarily high level of cash investors playing the market, but without the investors this year it gave us a picture of what demand really looks like in the Sacramento market. It’s a healthy sign to see more conventional sales this year too compared to 2013.

Cash sales since 2009 in Sacramento County by sacramento appraisal blogFHA and cash sales since 2009 in Sacramento County by sacramento appraisal blogFHA and cash sales in Sacramento County by sacramento appraisal blog

I mentioned above that having less investors has helped FHA buyers get into contract more often, and these graphs really prove the point. The same is true with conventional and VA buyers. This past year owner occupant buyers were actually able to get into contract without having to try to outbid investors with deep pockets.

7) It’s taking 20% longer to sell a house in today’s market: 

CDOM in Sacramento County - by Sacramento Appraisal Blog

It took 50 days on average to sell a home last month in Sacramento County, which is 20% longer than it was taking one year ago (40 days in December 2013). Keep in mind it was taking easily 80-90 days at the end of 2011 and beginning of 2012, which was only three years ago. Ultimately well-priced properties are still selling very quickly and receiving multiple offers in some cases, but properties that are overpriced are sitting on the market. This is the classic example of what Jay Papasan says about “being on the market” vs. “being in the market”.

8) Distressed sales were hardly a force in 2014:

REOs and Short Sales since 2013 in Sacramento County

REOs and Short Sales in Sacramento County

Both short sales and REO sales hovered around only 6% of the market for the past two quarters. There are still distressed sales to buy out there, but they are far and few in between.

9) Interest rates are boosting purchasing power for buyers:

interest rates by sacramento appraisal blog since 2008

All the experts keep saying rates are going to increase, but then the Fed keeps surprising us with lower rates. Obviously this cannot continue forever, but for now lower rates are going to help buyers afford more house for their money (and afford to purchase in a market with higher prices).

10) Trends to Watch: Job Market, Interest Rates, and Inventory

layers of the market sacramento county since 2008 - by sacramento appraisal blog layers of the market sacramento county since 2011 - by sacramento appraisal bloglayers of the market sacramento county since 2001 - by sacramento appraisal blog

Three factors to watch this year include interest rates, the health of the local and national job market, and housing inventory. These are three of the biggest players in the market right now since cash investors and freakishly low housing inventory are no longer driving factors.

a) Interest Rates: Rates moving up and down will impact values to a certain extent as buyers will be able to either pay higher prices or not.

b) Job Market: Our economy has been inching forward, but we need local buyers to have higher incomes. Relief at the gas pump will certainly help free up some funds, but that is an external temporary boost for buyers instead of wage growth.

c) Housing Supply: Inventory has been flirting with 2.5 months, and it was poised to grow this coming year (but we’ll see what lower rates do to inventory as more buyers may enter the market). Remember that the market in Sacramento showed declining values any time in the past 15 years when inventory was higher than 4 months of housing supply. We like to say “5 months is a normal supply of houses”, but that’s not the norm for today’s market. In short, let’s keep our eye on how high inventory goes because the market is very sensitive to increases in inventory.

Questions: How would you describe the market in 2014? Anything else you’d add? If you are not in Sacramento, are there some similarities here that also resemble your market? I’d love to hear your take.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: 2014 recap of housing, appraisers in Sacramento, distressed sales declining, Fall Market, home appraisals Sacramento, housing inventory, interest rates, investors leaving the market, job market, Market Trends, more FHA loans, real estate market in 2014, REO sales, sacramento housing market, Short Sales, trend graphs

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