Short Sales

Who is selling in today’s housing market?

September 4, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 12 Comments

Who is selling right now? Some say it’s mostly people who bought over the past few years. Others say it’s just Boomers with dated homes. Well, what do the stats show? Let’s take a look at the numbers. I’m focusing on my local market, but I hope you find this interesting no matter where you are.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

9/10/25 Windermere Sacramento
9/16/25 Culbertson & Gray (private)
9/18/25 Realty One Group (ROG Talks) register here
9/24/25 Keller Williams Roseville
9/25/25 Further Together (register here)
9/26/25 PCAR
9/30/25 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
10/23/25 CREB Meeting (TBA)
10/24/25 Fusion Rally in Denver, CO
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting
11/5/25 KW Elk Grove
12/9/25 Downtown Regional MLS Meeting
12/10/25 SAFE Credit Union (TBA)
1/14/26 Windermere EDH / Placerville
2/11/26 San Joaquin County presentation (TBA)

DIGGING DEEPER INTO SELLERS

I hope today’s research provides some clues into who is selling. When looking at current listings, how long ago did sellers buy? For instance, 5.0% of current listings previously sold in 2021 on MLS.

Are current listings mostly from people who bought over the past few years?

No, but this is a solid chunk of the market. 18.4% of listings (this also includes pendings) represent homes that were previously purchased between 2020 and 2024 in the region. Don’t get me wrong. This is a very decent portion, but it’s not the majority as some suggest when saying, “Bro, all the sellers today bought when rates were low, and now they need to unload.”

Are owners with low rates holding on to their homes?

Yes. We’re not seeing a flood of these owners, but this portion is definitely growing. Today, there are conservatively somewhere around five hundred listings with a low rate (assuming those who purchased in portions of 2020 and 2021 have a rate around 3%). My sense is people are going to do all they can to hang on to their lower monthly payment, but as time goes on, we should see more owners sell simply because lifestyle and finances will mandate change. Case-in-point. I have a friend who moved to Placer County a few years ago, but now the plan is to move back to Sacramento despite having a sub-3% rate. In other words, it’s not always about the numbers and math. Sometimes lifestyle changes happen, and that’s the trump card. By the way, as these homes come to the market more, we’ll have more conversation about assumable mortgages (only FHA and VA are assumable).

Do sellers have massive equity?

Yes. The vast bulk of listings have ample equity, especially since over half of homes haven’t sold on MLS since 2012. But there are some short sales listings, and these properties represent 0.8% of the market. This is a tiny portion, but if prices persist to decline, we should expect to see this number rise.

Are current listings mostly properties purchased long ago?

Yes, it looks that way. 54.2% of current listings have not sold on MLS since 2012, so the majority of these homes haven’t seen a for sale sign in the yard in quite some time. This lines up with something I’ve been noticing in recent years where many homes are dated and often the byproduct of heirs putting an inherited home on the market instead of keeping it. These homes were often previously owned by the Silent Generation and Boomers. I’m not saying the bulk of listings fall into this category, but there does seem to be a bigger chunk. This could contribute to some listings feeling stale too as many of these homes have not been updated (something that buyers want today). I suppose I could try to pull all sales from 1998 onward in MLS, but this is a tedious process, so I’m only showing 2012 onward today despite the more limited view (this took hours to pull, by the way).

Takeaways for real estate friends:

Who are the sellers? Who has incentive to sell in today’s market? Think about who you are talking to in your marketing. Who are you targeting? Does that line up with what we’re seeing statistically?

DATA METHODOLOGY:

These stats are based on single family detached listings and pendings in Sacramento, Placer, Yolo, and El Dorado counties as of 9/04/2025 (no condos). I compared all of these properties with the addresses of sales from previous years. I used the “Street Address” field in MLS to sort through properties. At first, I used the “Full Address,” but after all my research I realized not every listing had the full ZIP Code listed in MLS, so results weren’t good enough. So, I exported all data again (over 330,000 sales) with just the street address (no ZIP), and it made a difference. I used Excel to identify duplicates, which showed when a current listing was sold on MLS previously. One limiting factor here is there are some current listings that were purchased privately (not on MLS), and focusing on MLS sales only doesn’t capture those properties. This is true of new construction especially that may not have listed on MLS in previous years. So, if anything, consider these numbers reliable, but conservative too.

Thanks for being here.

LEAVING COMMENTS: The captcha is not working perfectly. If you open up a new browser, that should solve the issue. It’s been a problem to comment when clicking from my weekly email. My apologies.

Questions: What stands out to you about the stats today? Anything to add? I’d love to hear your take.

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Five things to watch in the housing market

May 21, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 16 Comments

Housing is on my mind. Here are five things I’m watching closely in today’s market. I suspect many locations around the country are experiencing very similar trends. I’d love to hear your take in the comments.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

5/21/25 Grounded Real Estate
6/5/25 Auburn Marketing Meeting
6/12/25 Realtist of Sacramento
7/22/25 Investor Event (TBA)
9/10/25 Windermere Sacramento
9/16/25 Culbertson & Gray (private)
9/24/25 Keller Williams Roseville
9/26/25 PCAR
9/30/25 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting

1) MOVE-UP BUYERS MAKING IT HAPPEN

It’s not as easy to be a buyer today since the math isn’t working for so many people, but there are definitely buyers who simply need a different house or location, so they’ll make a move to make things work. Here’s a tweet exchange last week with a local resident. This person is responding to a post where I talked about some counties showing negative price stats. This is a good reminder for real estate professionals to stop obsessing over prices being up (that’s a seller-oriented narrative). The only thing that matters today is finding buyers and sellers who have incentive to participate regardless of market conditions.

We’ve seen more growth at higher prices so far this year. This is about buyers at this range having more money and being less sensitive to rates, but there are surely some move-up situations here too.

2) THE CONDO MARKET IS A DIFFERENT VIBE

The condo market has a different vibe than the detached market. Supply has shown a sharper increase, and we’ve also seen higher cancellations. This is a good reminder that different parts of the market might not feel the same. There are going to be some situations today where prices are declining in the condo market, but detached homes nearby could be flat. Keep in mind not every single condo complex has this exact trend either. What we don’t want to do is impose a “condos are struggling” narrative on all condos. My advice? Look to the comps in each area.

3) SHORT SALES HAVE GROWN, BUT BANK-OWNED SALES HAVEN’T

Short sales have tripled this year, but what that means is there have been 27 so far in the region compared to 9 last year. We could say that’s a whopping 200% growth, but that sounds sensational – especially when we back up for some context to see how many there were a decade ago. No matter what though, we’ve seen growth, so let’s not ignore a trend. I expect to see more short sales ahead as consumers are dealing with growing debt and delinquencies.

It’s not correct to say all distressed sales are growing because bank-owned sales have not grown this year. There has been no wave of foreclosures hitting the market. Let’s keep watching this ahead. For now, it’s best to say short sales have grown, but bank-owned sales have not.

4) NEW CONSTRUCTION IS NO LONGER SUPER HOT

Stats for new homes have been glowing, but that’s no longer the case. April was another lackluster month of new homes sales. Besides 2020, it was the lowest April in a decade locally. When we look at the past 90 days, volume is down 28% from one year ago. That’s 543 fewer sales this year compared to the same time last year. This is a blatant change from recent years, and it’s something we want to continue to watch. It seems concessions aren’t working like they used to.

Two things to watch: Pay attention to builder prices. If builders have more standing inventory, then they’ll have to offer even more concessions or lower prices. The thing I’m curious about is whether we see builders slow down their production. Secondly, watch homes that were built between 2021 and 2024. These units adjacent to current new construction are going to have a hard time competing with the brand-new stuff. Watch pockets with the highest levels of new construction in places like Roseville, Rancho Cordova, Folsom Ranch, and Elk Grove. Some agents are going to become specialists in working with owners who are next to new construction.

5) EXPECT TO SEE MORE CONCESSIONS

The housing market is softer than one year ago, but regardless of temperature, it’s still normal to see more concessions during the second half of the year since there are so many more listings to choose from. Check out the white space that represents July to December. Do you see an uptick every year (besides 2020)? So, expect to start seeing sellers offer more concessions to buyers – especially if rates remain closer to 7%. I can’t verify if this trend exists everywhere, but I have to think it’s going to be common in many markets around the country.

Here’s a look at sales with reported concessions in April in the wider region. Remember, there are two stats here. If nearly 45% of sales had concessions, that means 55% didn’t.

NOTE ON NAR LAWSUIT: Since the NAR lawsuit, it’s very possible that the commission to the buyer’s side is sometimes entered as a concession in MLS. However, in Sacramento County, last April the percentage was 40%, and in 2023 in April it was 41%. So, it’s not that much different today at 45%. The market is softer this year, so we would expect to see more concessions, right? This is something I will continue to monitor. In my strong opinion, we need to keep compensation separate from typical concessions. This helps both agents and appraisers when pulling comps and trying to figure out what sellers are giving to buyers. What sellers are doing for compensation for agents is a separate issue.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What stands out to you most about the five things to watch? I’d love to hear your take on things.

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The home price crash that hasn’t come

December 10, 2024 By Ryan Lundquist 10 Comments

Real estate prices are going to tank. We’ve been hearing that since 2020, and here we are without much change in most markets. Let’s talk about prices today, and I want to share some new visuals to talk about distressed sales.

Scroll quickly by topic or digest slowly.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:
12/18/24 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks
1/15/25 Mike & Joel Event (free online (register Eventbrite))
1/16/25 Sac Real Producers event (details TBA)
1/22/25 Windermere El Dorado Hills / Folsom (private I think)
1/24/25 PCAR Market Update (details TBA)
1/31/25 Prime Real Estate (private)
2/6/25 She Invests event (TBA)
2/11/25 MLS Meeting TBA
2/18/25 Travis Credit Union TBA
3/6/25 Yolo Association YPN Event
3/12/25 Windemere Sierra Oaks
3/20/25 HomeSmart iCare Realty (private I think)
4/15/25 Culbertson and Gray (private I think)
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting

PRICES HAVEN’T DROPPED MUCH

Nationally, homes prices haven’t crashed despite so many YouTube videos saying that would happen. So, it seems crash predictions are going to be punted to next year again. The problem is sellers have been sitting back, and that’s really changed the way the market feels. To date, it’s just been too tight for a 2007 level price crash event. For instance, locally this year we’re missing about 11,000 listings from the normal number. Imagine how different the housing market would feel if we injected 11,000 more listings this year. Do you think prices would be declining? I think they would.

From a real estate friend on X:

BUT LOCAL ISN’T THE SAME AS NATIONAL

One thing to remember is there really isn’t such a thing as a national market. The so-called “national” market is comprised of thousands of local markets, and this year national price figures are up, but there are definitely some local markets that are down. Like I always say, the market isn’t doing the same thing in every location, so we want to be careful about imposing a national narrative on every local market. There isn’t such a thing as national weather, and the same is true for real estate.

DID NOVEMBER REBOUND FROM FLAT PRICES?

Local price growth has slowed, and in recent months it’s felt pretty flat. However, price metrics for November are up 4-5% for the region. Has the market rebounded? Well, three things to keep in mind:

We’re now comparing today with a time last year when rates were 8%, so many stats today are simply going to look better.
Square footage in the region was larger in November 2024 compared to last year, whereas the four previous months were lower. This can make a difference in the numbers.
Not every county is mirroring the regional trend of being up.

SIZE MATTERS

I pull stats for nine local counties, and I’ll say it’s hit and miss with size this year. Generally speaking, in counties showing negative price metrics from last year, homes tend to be smaller this year. And in counties with positive growth, homes tend to be larger. Ultimately, I wouldn’t get overly fixated on the latest glowing month unless we start to see a trend.

“PRICES ARE GOING TO DROP BY 40%”

I haven’t seen any reputable data firm say prices are going to tank by 40% in 2025, but I’ve heard that sentiment on X (usually from anonymous accounts). Look, here’s the thing. There is nothing wrong with prices going down, and that would be healthy to create more affordability, but we don’t have enough supply right now to see a massive drop like that. With that said, the positive news for buyers this year is we’ve seen a wider gap emerge between the number of listings and sales, and that has definitely softened the market (see chart). What we want to watch closely ahead is how this gap changes. If it grows wider, that could lead to prices softening, but if it gets tighter, that could leave space for some upward growth. I’ll talk more about this next month in my annual outlook.

BRO, SURFING FORECLOSURE WAVES

I thought it would be interesting to show distressed sales in a new way. I pushed out the first graph last week, and it created quite a bit of conversation.

Only a few distressed sales lately
The carnage after 2007 was vast
The foreclosure market didn’t hit every area the same
Distressed sales were more prominent at lower prices in some neighborhoods. This reminds us the market is NOT the same at every price point.
Higher prices tended to be able to better weather the storm (more equity, more savings, higher income, more cash buyers, etc…).

NOTE: I chose different colors below just to mix it up

DISTRESSED SALES HARDLY EXIST

Very few distressed sales have hit the market lately. That’s what the graphs above show, and stats below show the same thing.

QUICK TAKEAWAYS

Mortgage delinquencies have remained low, but it’s something to keep a close eye on.
We’ve bottomed out with distressed sales, so there isn’t any place to go but up. Having more doesn’t mean 2007 though.
Being underwater on a mortgage is not much of an issue today due to equity, so owners can often do traditional sales to deal with financial carnage.
Let’s not fixate too much on REO and short sale stats because those stats don’t capture the owners who are selling right now due to distressed situations (they have equity to deal with their issues).
Let’s watch rising credit card and auto delinquencies.
Technically, short sales doubled from last year, but there were two this November compared with one last year.

The NY Fed has a great series of charts to show household debt, so check out their latest report here. And check out local delinquency rates from the CA Policy Lab.

And now local stats for anyone interested….

LOCAL STATS

Year-over-year stats. Remember, size matters here. For instance, Sacramento County had 6% larger homes this year, Nevada was 8% smaller, Placer was almost the same, and Yolo was 5% smaller in size. I may add a square footage category as I think it’s becoming more relevant for conversation. Stay tuned.

Month-to-month:

I hope this was interesting or helpful.

Questions: What’s happening with prices right now from your vantage point? Any insight or stories to share?

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Some red flags for the housing market

May 2, 2024 By Ryan Lundquist 19 Comments

Consumers are feeling economic pain, and we need to talk about some of the things that are brewing. Today, I want to look at growing debt, distressed sales, and unemployment. I have both national and local stats. Sounds like a happy post, right? Look, some people really hype this topic and use it to magnify doom, but let’s talk about the market that actually exists.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:
5/9/24 Empire Home Loans (register here)
5/15/24 KW Roseville Event
6/5/24 Marketing Mastermind (register here)
6/6/24 Golden 1 Credit Union (details TBA)
6/11/24 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting 8:30am
6/13/24 Sacramento Realtist Association (details TBA here)
6/21/24 Exporting data from MLS (details TBA)
9/17/24 Downtown Regional MLS Meeting Q&A 9am
9/20/24 How to Think Like an Appraiser class (details TBA)
10/18/24 Prime Real Estate (private)
10/29/24 Orangevale MLS Meeting

MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES ARE REALLY LOW

First off, we don’t have a big problem with mortgage delinquencies, but there is a little bit of an uptick. Basically, depending on the data source, delinquencies have inched up very slightly. This is something to watch, but it’s important to not amplify the small change to promote a narrative. Visuals from Calculated Risk, NY Fed, and ICE Mortgage Technology.

GETTING INTO CREDIT TROUBLE NATIONALLY

Consumers are getting into debt and missing payments for credit cards and auto loans in particular. We may not be in mortgage trouble right now, but some people may need to solve their financial problems by selling a home. However, people will fight to keep homes with low payments. In other words, letting go of a home to solve debt seems like a last-case scenario.

CREDIT & AUTO TROUBLE IN SACRAMENTO

These visuals come from the California Policy Lab credit dashboard. What I like is this is Sacramento only instead of a national stat that may or may not apply to the local area. Credit card delinquencies are above pre-pandemic levels. You can click on the link to play around with different areas of California as well as seeing which age groups are in the most trouble.

Auto delinquencies are also ticking up in Sacramento.

SHORT SALES AND FORECLOSURES HARDLY EXIST

In the local market, distressed sales barely exist. Technically, 1% of all sales during the first quarter of 2024 were distressed, but that’s 1% of a really low number (low volume is the reality in the market right now). Basically, both bank-owned sales and short sales are inching a little closer to pre-pandemic levels, but not quite back there yet. In short, we should see more distressed sales ahead since there is no longer a foreclosure moratorium, and there is no place to go but up. We have truly bottomed out.

HELLO THERE CREDIT REPAIR

Some people ahead are going to need to repair their credit, so I think it’s important for the real estate community to have solid credit repair contacts and help consumers understand the process. Honestly, I’d love to see more reels and posts about this, especially since we’re seeing credit and auto delinquencies rising.

WHAT SHORT SALES ARE HAPPENING THOUGH?

Here are current short sale active listings and pendings in the region. Keep in mind these listings represent 0.3% of all properties, so this is a tiny sliver of the market. What can we learn though? Well, it looks like there are some older loans with carnage, and a handful of reverse mortgages where the owner likely died and the lender is taking the property back (normal to see). The thing that is more striking is that about half the loans originated when the market was priced higher in 2022. Again, this is a tiny sliver of the market, but if you work in real estate, take clues here that some people might need your help. For whatever reason, these people needed to sell instead of hold on.

WHAT PROPERTIES ARE BANK-OWNED?

There are few bank-owned (REO) sales right now, but when they happen, they’ve been a combination of older loans and some newer ones (but not really people who bought in 2022 at peak prices). Remember, people can go into foreclosure for so many reasons, and it’s not just about prices in the market. In many cases, it’s about a personal financial situation. On a side note, I’m definitely noticing some familiar agents listing bank-owned homes right now (mostly people who were big REO agents back in the day).

LET’S WATCH UNEMPLOYMENT

We’ve seen an uptick in unemployment. This is nothing to hype since it’s very low right now, but it is something we want to watch and NOT ignore. As can be seen, Sacramento and California have a similar vibe through the years.

Here are six local counties. All ships rise and fall with the tide, right?

And this one is a sincere hot mess when adding in three more local counties. Honestly, this graph is too much since these areas are too different, but sometimes I like to share examples of chaos on my desk.

CLOSING THOUGHTS

It’s important to watch any red flags in the housing market, but it’s also key to stay objective. I find the tendency online is to highlight a trickle of doom and make it sound like an avalanche. There is no integrity in that. Likewise, some real estate professionals only want to talk about the glowing stuff rather than some of the issues we’re seeing right now. Overall, we don’t have a distressed market, but let’s keep our antennas up about all of this while actively cultivating objectivity. And if you work in real estate, be prepared to serve clients in all stations of life. The good times and the hard times.

Questions: What stands out to you most above? Anything to add? What did I miss?

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Short Sales

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