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Why no value adjustment is sometimes the best adjustment

May 5, 2015 By Ryan Lundquist 22 Comments

It has to add value, right? It’s tempting in real estate to make upward adjustments in our valuations whenever we see a feature that is remotely positive. Our thinking is that buyers have to be willing to pay something for that special feature, so we should give it a little value boost. But sometimes making no adjustment is the best thing to do. Let’s look at three quick examples.

no value adjustment given - sacramento appraisal blog

Three examples where no adjustment could be the best move:

  1. Duplex with Large Lot Size: We get used to giving value premiums for larger lot sizes for single family homes, but a larger lot size for a duplex is often not a positive gain for the property. Assuming the lot cannot be built on or divided, the extra space really costs more for the owner to manage, and that can actually diminish cash flow for the property. Imagine a duplex on 0.75 acres, while every other similar duplex is on a postage stamp lot. If there is no difference in the rent between all the duplexes, and the larger lot is not useful for building, there probably isn’t a value premium for that extra lot size. In fact, the larger lot may be a nuisance because of the cost of extra landscaping maintenance or even illegal dumping.
  2. Location Across from a Park: It’s always worth more to be located across from a park, right? Not necessarily. While a park location might feel like an asset, if it’s also located on a busy street, the negative of the busy location might balance out any positive gain for the park location. Or if a park is known for loitering or criminal activity, it might not be desirable at all to live across the street from it. This is why it is telling to hear home owners talk about their park location. At times they love it and wouldn’t trade it for the world, but other times it’s a clear negative. Of course market value is not just about one owner’s perception, but the entire market. How would most buyers respond to the location? This is where we have to look at neighborhood sales over time to see if there is any price difference between park sales and non-park sales.
  3. Condo with a View of a Lake: Imagine a condo with a view of a lake. We would all assume the lake view is worth more than a non-lake view, but what do the neighborhood sales and listings tell us? Is there any price difference at all? If the vast bulk of properties in the condo development are all rentals, and there is no difference in the rental value for the lake view vs. the non-lake view, then the lake view is not an asset. This real life scenario came from a conversation with a mentor recently.

The Point: Sometimes it’s tempting to give a positive value adjustment because we feel there simply has to be one. But there actually might not be one. Maybe the market doesn’t behave the way we think it should, or maybe the market in one subdivision trends differently than a nearby subdivision. This underscores the need to watch neighborhood sales and listings closely to try to let the data speak to us rather than let our assumptions trump the data.

Marketing to Millennials Event: Locals, I wanted to invite you to an event I’m moderating at the Sacramento Association of Realtors on May 6 at 12pm. It’s called Marketing to Millennials, and it’s all about how to connect with Millennials in your real estate business. This generation too often gets a bad wrap from so many sources, but how can you connect with them and serve them best in business? There will be a guest speaker and four panelists. Make sure to say “hi” if you can make it. Read more here (pdf) or sign up here.

Question: What other examples can you think of where a positive value adjustment wasn’t needed (even though it seemed like one should be given)?

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Filed Under: Appraisal Stuff Tagged With: adjustment in appraisal report, adjustments, appraisal methodology, appraisal principles, Duplex, home appraisals, house appraisals, large lot size, park location, Sacramento appraisals, Valuation, view of lake

Three things to keep in mind about real estate during the Fall months

September 4, 2014 By Ryan Lundquist 4 Comments

How does the real estate market usually behave during the Fall? Let’s take a look today at three quick talking points to help explain the market in Sacramento. It’s not like I’m revealing mysterious truths below, but it’s powerful to be confident that the trends we tend to talk about are actually backed up by data.

1) Prices tend to cool off during the Fall months:

fall in sacramento county 2 - by sacramento appraisal blog

fall in sacramento county - by sacramento appraisal blog

The median price very often sees a dip during the Fall months. This is normal, it’s what happened last year, and it is probably what is going to happen this year since the market tends to slow down after August. However, keep in mind sometimes the market really doesn’t see a seasonal price dip if values are experiencing explosive appreciation (see 2004 and 2012). At the same time, if the market is declining, the decline will very likely persist all the way through the fourth quarter of the year. We all know this since it’s Real Estate 101, but it’s good to actually see the trend.

2) Sales volume tends to decline during the Fall months:

fall in sacramento county sales volume - by sacramento appraisal blog

sales volume 2008 to 2014 - by sacramento appraisal blog Real estate is definitely cyclical, so it’s no surprise there are more sales during the Summer than the Fall. This is true every year in Sacramento County and really throughout the United States. Last year we saw a freakishly low number of sales as the market struggled to adapt to cash investors exiting the market and the looming government shutdown. This year we are entering the Fall market with more of a “normal” market, but one that already has a higher level of inventory as well as many overpriced listings.

3) Housing inventory tends to increase slightly during the Fall months:

housing inventory in fall 2008 to 2014 - by sacramento appraisal blog

housing inventory in fall - by sacramento appraisal blog

Housing inventory tends to show a slight increase or at least hover at summer levels for a short period of time before ALWAYS showing a drop in December. Remember, inventory can increase in two ways: 1) More listings hit the market and outpace the number of sales; or 2) The number of sales declines while listings stay relatively the same. Case-in-point: Last year housing inventory saw a big increase from September to November, but not because so many more listings hit the market. The reality was sales volume hit a 6-year low during this time period.

Question: What do you think the best month of the year is to buy a home? I’d love to hear your take in the comments.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: Fall months, market is slowing down, normal to slow down, normalizing market, Real Estate Appraisals, Real Estate Market in Sacramento, Sacramento appraisals, Sacramento Appraiser, Sacramento real estate trends, slower values, trend graphs

Real estate, water and the guy without a front lawn

March 24, 2014 By Ryan Lundquist Leave a Comment

Are you ready to pay a higher water bill in coming months? I shudder to think about more money leaving my wallet yet again, but it seems inevitable for water companies to raise rates and create mandatory restrictions because of the severe drought we’re having in California. That’s why this home owner without a front lawn is starting to look pretty smart. This guy is hands-down going to save money, but most of all he may be ahead of the curve in case severe lawn watering restrictions come into play. Yes, it’s still not as common to see xeriscaped front yards, but wouldn’t you say it’s growing in popularity? Might the drought spur on more yards like this?

front yard during a drought - by sacramento appraiser blog

The Drought & Real Estate: The truth is the drought in California can definitely impact real estate. Over time buyers are simply going to have to think about water usage during their real estate decisions. How much is it going to cost to fill and operate a built-in pool? How much is that expansive front yard going to cost to keep green? Will buyers pay more if the front yard has been dialed in already to save water? Will buyers pay a premium for water-saving appliances, instant tankless water heaters, or water efficient toilets or faucets? Will a golf course view be worth less if the “greens” are brown? Will builders struggle to get new construction off the ground because of water shortages? These are relevant questions.

layers of the market that create value - cake by Joy Yip

Cake, Water & our Wallets: I talk constantly about how the real estate market is like a multi-layered cake since there are many layers of the market that impact or create value. We know it’s obvious that things like inventory, interest rates and cash investors can strongly influence the direction of values, but we should add the cost of water as a layer of value since it is bound to be something buyers more readily consider in coming time. Granted, I doubt the cost of water will sway the market like interest rates can, but it is nonetheless a consideration and something to keep on our radar. Most of all, until there are severe restrictions in place and the cost of water dramatically increases, we may not see too much sensitivity in the market. Whenever our wallets are hit though, that’s when change can come.

parcel mullet word - sacramento appraisal blogParcel Mullet: By the way, since we’re on the subject of lawns, it seems natural to ask if you’ve incorporated the word “parcel mullet” into your real estate vocabulary yet. Heather Ostrom and I coined this term during a Twitter conversation two years ago, and the word was recently mentioned in Inman News, The Chicago Tribune and on Word Spy. Enjoy.

Questions: In what ways do you think the drought can impact real estate? How have you seen buyers respond to front yards without lawn? Any tips for water conservation?

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Filed Under: Appraisal Stuff, Market Trends Tagged With: Appraised Value, Appraiser, drought in california, Heather Ostrom, home appraisals, layers of the market, parcel mullet, photo of no front lawn, Realtor Joy Yip's cake, Roseville Realtor Heather Ostrom, Sacramento appraisals, the cost of water, water and real estate, water conservation, what impacts value, xeriscaping

Price per Sq Ft and The Costco Principle

March 3, 2014 By Ryan Lundquist 12 Comments

Using the wrong comps can lead to the wrong price or value. I realize that’s a no-brainer, but at the same time it’s still a common mistake when using price per sq ft figures to list or appraise a house.

A Recent Scenario: The subject property is a 3-bedroom unit at just about 1500 sq ft. There were zero sales at the contract price and really no reason why it should be selling so high, so I asked the Listing Agent what influenced him to price the property at that level. He shared that the price per sq ft of two nearby homes supported the value. The only problem was that the nearby sales were closer to 1200 sq ft, which was about 300 sq ft less than the subject property. While this might not seem like a big deal, the smaller homes actually had a higher price per sq ft than than 1500 sq ft models. Take a look at the graphs below.

Price per sq ft in nhood 1100-1300 sales

Price per sq ft in nhood model match sales

Price per sq ft in nhood

The smaller units were easily between 180-190 per sq ft, but the houses very close in size to the subject property were much closer to 170-ish. This just goes to show how important it is to compare apples to apples in real estate. Or in other words, it’s vital to use data from similar properties when making a comparison. As a rule of thumb I might suggest using sales 10% or so above and below the square footage of the property you’re working with. In this scenario the smaller units easily had a 5%+ higher price per sq ft. You may wonder of course how a property could get into contract 5% too high. Remember that inventory is still tight, but most of all the offer was from an FHA buyer putting very little money down. When you’re not spending your own money, you tend to offer more, right? That’s how it usually works.

peanut butter costcoThe Costco Principle: Why do smaller homes tend to have a larger price per sq ft? Because they cost more to build. It’s sort of like buying one can of 16 oz peanut butter at your local grocery store for say $4.00, but then going to Costco and getting 96 ounces for $12.00. Just as it can be less expensive to buy groceries in bulk, the same is true in real estate when building. Think about how much less it costs to build a second story on top of a one-story house. During new construction it saves a ton of money to simply add the second level because there is no need for an additional roof, foundation or much infrastructure below because it’s already there. This is also exactly why a house double in size is probably not worth twice as much because it didn’t cost twice as much to build.

Questions: Any thoughts or insight? By the way, chunky or creamy peanut butter? I say chunky all the way.

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Filed Under: Appraisal Stuff, Resources Tagged With: comparing properties, comps, Costco, graphs of price per sq ft, Home Appraiser, House Appraiser, how to value a property, Price per sq ft, pricing principles, pricing properties correctly, Sacramento appraisals, valuation principles

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