sellers not listening

Sellers are struggling to listen to the market

September 10, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 22 Comments

Some sellers today are being stubborn, and it’s really backfiring. Not only are sellers tending to overprice, but they’re also not in sync with buyers getting more concessions. Buyers are routinely getting credits for closing costs, repairs, and rate buydowns. In short, it’s time for sellers to listen and pony up to get deals done. In today’s post, I have some fresh perspective about concessions, and I have a huge market update too.

Scroll quickly by topic or digest slowly.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

9/10/25 Windermere Sacramento
9/16/25 Culbertson & Gray (private)
9/18/25 Realty One Group (ROG Talks) register here
9/24/25 Keller Williams Roseville
9/25/25 Further Together (register here)
9/26/25 PCAR
9/30/25 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
10/23/25 CREB Meeting (TBA)
10/24/25 Fusion Rally in Denver, CO
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting
11/5/25 KW Elk Grove
12/9/25 Downtown Regional MLS Meeting
12/10/25 SAFE Credit Union (TBA)
1/14/26 Windermere EDH / Placerville
2/11/26 San Joaquin County presentation (TBA)

1) WELCOME BACK CONCESSIONS AMOUNT FIELD

When the NAR lawsuit happened, the MLS field for the commission amount to the buyer side was removed, but there was also a separate concessions field that was taken away. It was collateral damage from the lawsuit even though the concessions field had nothing to do with compensation. Well, this concessions amount field is thankfully back as of a few weeks ago (thank you Metrolist). Agent friends, PLEASE fill this out because it makes pulling comps helpful for everyone. Knowing what the seller gave the buyer is so important when choosing comps. This field has nothing to do with compensation either. It’s all about stuff like closing costs, credit for repairs, buying down the rate, etc… Here’s what the new field looks like:

2) SELLERS PLAYING HARDBALL OVER $9,000

Some sellers are really stubborn right now, and they’re not negotiating with buyers. These sellers are stuck in 2021 thinking they hold all the cards, and they’re not realizing that buyers have more power today. Over the past month, the average concession amount listed in MLS has been $9,168 (or 1.6%). There are obviously much larger concessions in some instances, but on average it’s been pretty minor. In short, some sellers are playing hardball and causing buyers to walk over a minor amount. It’s important to note that we’re in a market where many properties only get one offer (and so many listings have zero offers).

Kudos to the sellers above for listening to the market and getting it done. In today’s world, buyers might want a lower price and concessions. Meanwhile, some sellers are dreaming of a higher price only. Don’t be this seller below.

3) MORE CONCESSIONS AT LOWER PRICES

Counties with lower prices have tended to have more concessions (not a shocker). These numbers are based on MLS data, and if anything, I think these stats are conservative since not every agent checked “yes” or “no” in MLS for whether concessions were present or not. By the way, I don’t include “Call Listing Agent” as a “yes” in my stats (it probably is a yes though).

One more thing. Concessions don’t happen in every transaction (key point).

4) EXPECT MORE CONCESSIONS IN THE SECOND HALF OF 2025

The percentage of sales with concessions is currently higher than we’ve seen in recent years in our largest county – Sacramento. This isn’t a shocker since the market is softer today. The interesting part about this graph is it shows concessions increase during the second half of the year as a normal seasonal trend, so I would expect for sellers to have to give more to buyers for the rest of 2025 unless something unexpected happens with the market. Sellers, did you hear this? Historically, sellers give more to buyers during the second half of the year (see white space and ignore 2020).

NOTE: Some might interpret this stat as agents inputting compensation as a concession, but I don’t think that explains it. It seems like the seller is paying for the buyer’s agent commission most of the time (based on conversations I’m having), so if agents were inputting the commission as a concession, this number should be so much higher than it has been since the NAR lawsuit.

5) APPRAISERS HELPED BRING THIS CHANGE TO MLS

Props to a group of appraisers from REAA Sacramento for opening up conversation with MLS about the missing concessions amount field and pitching the idea for how this field could work in a post-NAR lawsuit world. MLS liked the idea with the drop-down menu and adopted it. I was part of the initial conversation to help make this happen, but Joe Lynch and Amy Parker did the heavy lifting here by joining the MLS board (thanks guys).

—————— big market update for anyone interested ——————

BIG MARKET UPDATE

If your self-esteem is based on sales volume, you’re in a world of hurt. Closed sales volume was lackluster in the entire region in August. While we’ve seen an increase in the number of purchase applications nationally, it just has not yet translated to an increase in pendings or closed sales. The reality is the pile of buyers today has continued to flirt with historic lows. Traditional price metrics have been hovering around last year, give or take 1% or so. In short, prices have been pretty flat with some brewing downward pressure. When pulling comps, I’m noticing the same thing with flat prices or down a little from one year ago. Yet, condos can be down much more.

ACTIVES AREN’T GROWING ANY LONGER

In the background, we’ve seen the pile of active listings decrease lately in light of sellers backing off the market a few months ago. I’ve been talking about how increased uncertainty has led to buyers backing off the market since April, but this has been a vibe for sellers also. And this means the gap between sales and listings is closer today, which can affect market temperature. I don’t think the housing doom narrative has caught up to this trend yet because it’s all about explosive growth for listings. Okay, I get it, but that growth has tapered in recent months due to seller uncertainty (and now seasonality).

MOST PROPERTIES ARE GOING BELOW

The bulk of sales are selling below the original list price, and this is great news for buyers!!! This speaks to sellers overpricing and prices softening too.

SOME NEW COOL STATS (SPREADSHEET COMING SOON)

Here are some new stats I’ve been tinkering with lately. I built a spreadsheet that can instantly create these visuals. I’ll introduce the spreadsheet hopefully next month, and I’d like to do some training ahead on how to use it. I’ve put out free spreadsheets before, but this one is the best one I’ve done since it’s basically automated. My goal is to help people understand the market. It’s actually really amazing when using the spreadsheet in neighborhoods and zip codes. You can really see what the market is doing and how different it is by location and price point. Imagine having someone ask you a question about the market and being able to instantly push out stats like this. Anyway, stay tuned for more information. I am going to be selling the spreadsheet and my time for training. The fee will be modest, and the result can be career-changing. Oh, I’ll have more visuals too. I’m not done with the spreadsheet yet.

YEAR OVER YEAR STATS

Take some smaller counties with a grain of salt since the numbers can bounce around from month to month depending on what has sold (El Dorado especially).

JULY TO AUGUST STATS

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Questions: What stands out to you about the stats today? Anything to add? I’d love to hear your take.

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The problem of not listening in a slower market

September 12, 2018 By Ryan Lundquist 9 Comments

It’s not easy to listen when the market is slowing. This is true for sellers taking in pricing advice, and it’s also true for the average person reading national headlines. Let’s talk about this. Then for those interested I have a big market update. Anything to add?

Sellers not listening: All year it seems sellers have struggled to listen to pricing advice from their real estate agents. I guess I can understand because they’ve had nothing but “hot” headlines for six years. But I think there’s another issue too. Maybe we’re seeing some of the effect of sellers having more real estate data at their disposal than ever because of Zillow, Redfin, Metrolist, blogs… So right or wrong, we have sellers who now they think they know better than anyone. Whatever the case, sellers are making real mistakes out there by not listening to pricing advice and instead pricing for a much hotter market than we actually have. In case it’s useful, I wrote an article in Comstock’s magazine with some practical advice for sellers.

Listening to national headlines: There have been sensational headlines about the market beginning to crash, and it’s difficult at times to think past these headlines and be objective. Let’s remember though that headlines are designed to get clicks, and a headline may or may not mean anything for a local market. My advice? Don’t let any headline cloud your judgement of local trends.

Listening without enough context: This sounds like such a geeky point, but hang in here with me because it matters. Lots of times in real estate we end up comparing the current year with the previous year, and that’s actually a good thing. But my sense is we’re missing something if we pay too much attention to last year only and ignore prior years. In Sacramento at least it’s been a few seasons since we’ve had a dull fall, so it’s easy to forget what that feels like. Moreover, if we look at current inventory levels beginning to push a two-month housing supply, that looks huge compared to the past couple years. But if we look at inventory from 2014 when we had a dull fall season, it was hovering between 2 to 2.75 months at the time. This reminds us it’s possible to have higher inventory at this time of year without the market utterly tanking. I don’t say this to diminish the importance of rising housing supply right now, but only to highlight the need to look to a few more years of data as we interpret what is happening. After all, sometimes pulling stats is like pulling comps. If we only look at the past 90 days of sales, that might not be enough. At times we need a much wider view to really see the market. The same thing happens with real estate data. Know what I’m saying?

I hope that was helpful. Do you “hear” what I’m saying?

—–——– Big local monthly market update (long on purpose) —–——–

The market has been slowing. Duh, we know that. Everyone’s talking about it. Let me unpack what I mean below with some comments on some of the bigger themes right now:

Coffee vs. skimming: This post has lots of information. It’s designed to skim until you find something you want to read, or pour a cup of coffee and really spend some time digesting stuff.

BIG ISSUES IN SACRAMENTO:

Prices softening: Most price metrics in the region softened between 1-2% last month, though the median price in Sacramento County was flat. Around this time of year we normally see prices dip (as graphs show below).

Slowing momentum: We know the market is slowing for the season, but it’s also slowing down in terms of overall momentum. What I mean is in years past we’d look at stats and see price metrics were up a good 8-10% over the year, but these days they’re only up closer to 4-6% instead.

Slowing rent: Rent growth has been flattening lately, which is a good thing since rents sprinted way ahead of actual wage growth. Keep in mind this doesn’t mean rents have declined. It just seems the rent trend is flattening.

Sales volume is not crashing: One of the bigger issues to watch to know if a market is crashing is a change in sales volume. In other words, if properties stop selling, we have a big problem. Last month sales volume was down about 6% in the region and 2.6% in Sacramento County. Uh oh, is that a warning sign? Look, this is important to watch over time to know if we have a trend on our hands, but before making too much of one month of data, let’s look to the bigger picture. The truth is sales volume is actually higher so far this year in the region than last year and it’s up 1% in Sacramento County too. No mater how we look at it, volume has actually been strong. This isn’t spin, but fact. Please see my charts below. So on one hand let’s watch these next months carefully because it could be a problem if monthly sales volume does start to come in lower, but let’s also not give laser focus to a weaker August while ignoring the bigger context either.

Inventory is definitely up: It’s really noticeable to see more inventory right now. Even my non-real estate wife has said she’s seeing more listings when driving around town. Housing supply is actually up 25% compared to the same time last year, and it’s literally the first time in three years since we’ve had more than a two-month supply of homes for sale. Obviously if the rate of increase keeps climbing and the market doesn’t absorb new listings, we could have a problem on our hands. But let’s also remember when the market was very dull in the fall of 2014 we saw inventory hover between 2 to 2.75 months at the time.

Taking longer to sell: It took five days longer to sell last month compared to the month before. And this year it took 4 day longer than last year at the same time. So the market has slowed down from last year, but it’s definitely slowing from the past few months too. Sellers, did you hear that? You are losing power in this market and buyers are gaining it. My advice? Price according to listings that are actually getting into contract rather than the highest glowing sales from the spring. This week I talked with an agent about the market feeling really soft in a particular area because listings weren’t moving. But sometimes I wonder if it’s the market or just overpriced listings. From my vantage point almost every listing in the neighborhood was priced 5-10%+ too high, so it wasn’t a real shocker they weren’t selling.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

DOWNLOAD 72 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

BIG QUESTIONS:

1) How did the market change from last year?

2) How did the market change from July to August?

3) Is sales volume really crashing right now?

4) How does the current market compare to the previous peak?

2005 vs CURRENT: A few months ago I talked about peak prices because some metrics were showing 2005 levels. But with the market softening right now prices are growing further apart from the “top” so to speak.

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):