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Market Trends

5 things to keep in mind about FHA’s 90-day flipping rule in 2015

January 8, 2015 By Ryan Lundquist 36 Comments

The FHA flipping rule has changed this year. Since 2010 investors were able to buy a home, rehab it, and then re-sell the home to an FHA buyer as soon as they wished. But now in 2015 FHA has re-instituted their traditional 90-day rule so investors need to wait at least 90 days before selling their properties to an FHA buyer.

fha anti-flipping rule in 2015 - by sacramento appraisal blog

Is this a big deal or not for the housing market? I have 5 points below to consider and maybe share with clients when they ask. I’d love to hear your take too.

5 things to consider about FHA’s anti-flipping rule for 2015

1) An Inconvenience for Investors: This 90-day rule will be an inconvenience for investors since it limits the pool of existing buyers for their product. Some investors who are flipping at price ranges prime for FHA financing will definitely feel the impact of this rule.

2) Missed Opportunities: Some would-be FHA buyers will miss out on properties since investors will be more prone to accept a conventional buyer instead of waiting 90 days for FHA. In Sacramento, FHA financing has a higher volume at the lower end of the market under $200,000, so buyers at the bottom end could actually be more burdened by the rule.

fha logo3) The Reality of Less Cash: We no longer have a foreclosure epidemic both locally and nationally, which means there are fewer houses being flipped. Thus a rule like this carries far less impact in today’s market compared to the beginning of 2010 when it was absolutely beneficial. For reference, when FHA first eased their 90-day rule in 2010, bank-owned sales represented about 40% of the entire market in Sacramento, but now they’re only 5% of all sales.

4) It’s taking Longer to Sell Anyway: Realistically since many investors are going to take 30 to 60 days to flip a property, and then have a property on the market for 30+ days, this means some homes will still easily qualify for FHA financing. Agents will simply say in MLS something to the effect of, “90 day flip rule expires on such and such date”. For context, in November it took an average of 45 days to sell a house in Sacramento County and 50 days to sell in the region (though flips often sell more quickly since they are more marketable).

5) Boosting Conventional Loan Products: Lastly, removing FHA as an option within 90 days of acquisition will help steer some buyers to use conventional financing. Like I said two days ago when talking about trends to watch this year, we can expect to see some more creative financing options emerge as the market softens (and also as buyers need a different option to buy a quick flip without FHA financing).

I hope this was helpful. It’s so important to keep our finger on the pulse of the market so we can serve clients and make informed real estate decisions.

Questions: Do you think the 90-day flipping rule is a big deal or not? Anything else you’d like to add? I’d love to hear your take in the comments.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: 2015 FHA rule, FHA, FHA anti-flipping rule, FHA appraisers, FHA financing, FHA Real Estate Appraiser, Market Trends, new FHA rule, Sacramento Home Appraiser, Sacramento real estate trends

Quick signs of the Fall real estate market arriving in Sacramento

November 11, 2014 By Ryan Lundquist 6 Comments

Fall is here. You wouldn’t know it so much by the weather though since it’s still been hot in the Sacramento area. Seriously, my family has not even used our heater once yet (have you?). But the real estate numbers are a different story because they are showing a very definitive seasonal trend as the Fall market arrived on time over the past 30 or so days. Let’s take a look at 9 quick talking points to help understand and explain how the real estate market is unfolding right now in Sacramento County. I hope this helps.

Quoted in the SacBee: By the way, I was quoted in the Sunday morning edition of The Sacramento Bee in a story, “Sacramento area home could set record with 6.5 million listing“. Check it out if you wish.

photo by reggiewilliams on Instagram

Two ways to read this post:

  1. Scan the talking points and graphs quickly.
  2. Grab a cup of coffee and spend a few minutes digesting what is here.

GRAPHS

1)  The median price has been about the same for 6 months:

median price and inventory since 2013 - by sacramento appraisal blog

The median price technically declined from $275,000 to $269,951 last month, but take that with a grain of salt since the 2% boost in median price to $275,000 in September felt like more of a statistical fluke than anything. Overall the median price has been about the same for 6 months in a row.

2)  Prices overall are softening (which is normal for Fall):

price metrics since 2014 in sacramento county

Does the median price being the same for 6 months mean prices are stable? Looking at several metrics helps answer this question. Both the average sales price and average price per sq ft took a dip last month. Overall prices are softening in Sacramento County as well as the entire region (more on that in two days).

cooler price in Fall - by sacramento appraisal blog

Remember, it’s normal for prices to cool off during the Fall. The market as a whole is is slowing down, which is one thing, but let’s not forget the reality of our seasonal real estate cycle.

3) Inventory is at 2.5 months (about the same as last month).

inventory in sacramento county  Since 2011 - by sacramento appraisal blog

inventory during fall - by sacramento appraisal blog

Overall inventory is a hair under 2.5 months of housing supply, which means there are about two-and-a-half months worth of houses for sale right now in Sacramento County. This is about where the peak of inventory was in 2013. If the market unfolds “normally” over the next two months, we should see an increase in inventory.

4) Sales volume is down 8.8% in 2014 (but up 4% from October 2013):

sales volume october to october in sacramento county

sales volume in fall - by sacramento appraisal blog

It’s normal to see sales volume decline during the Fall months, so it was not a surprise to see slightly less sales in October compared to September. It is true that volume is actually 4% higher than it was during October 2013. Whiles this is obviously not a huge percentage, it’s still good to see slightly more volume. If you remember, last year was a very dark time in real estate in light of the looming government shutdown and the market having a very strong reaction as cash investors began leaving in droves. Keep in mind some savvy buyers are trying to scoop up properties right now during November and December since they know they are gaining more power to negotiate, but realistically many potential buyers are not shopping aggressively these days since their focus will soon shift to turkeys and holiday gifts. Likewise, some sellers have pulled their listings from the market since they didn’t sell at their desired prices. In fact, beginning several weeks ago price reductions have gone from about 400 per day in MLS to closer to 200. This is a byproduct of a slower Fall season (this is normal).

5) Cash sales are down 40% in Sacramento County in 2014:

cash sales and volume in sacramento county - by home appraiser blog - Copy Cash sales since 2009 in Sacramento County by sacramento appraisal blog

Cash purchases are down by 40% this year, which is really the X-factor for why sales volume has been more sluggish this year. Over the past couple years cash served as a steroid to increase values, but since investors took their foot off the gas pedal, the market has been attempting to figure out how to be normal. What does it look like for real estate to be more driven by local demand instead of an artificial demand from buyers outside of Sacramento? At the same time, cash purchases still represent about 1 in 3 sales under $200,000 (but it’s normal to have more cash at the lower end of the market).

6) Buyers are still gaining power in the market:

FHA and cash sales since 2009 in Sacramento County by sacramento appraisal blog

Less cash has created more space for both FHA and conventional offers to thrive. This has been great news for buyers. FHA has taken back an additional 4.5% of the market in 2014, which effectively means just over 23% of all sales in 2014 have been FHA (as opposed to 18.9% of all sales last year at this time). Keep in mind almost 33% of all sales used to be FHA a few years ago, so there is definitely room for buyers to absorb even more of the market. Did you catch that stat? As the market unfolds to become more of a buyers’ market in coming time, we can expect to see more FHA, conventional, and VA deals. In short, if you are not familiar with FHA appraisal standards, it’s time to get up to speed.

sellers lagging behind the trend in Sacramento County

Part of buyers gaining power in Sacramento’s housing market is due to overpriced listings from sellers. While price reductions have slowed down a bit over the past 30 days as less listings are hitting the market, there are still many overpriced properties. Sellers, remember that the mind of the buyer has changed drastically over the past six months. Buyers are simply not pulling the trigger unless properties are well-priced for their condition and location. As I’ve been saying, I recommend pricing according to the most recent competitive listings that are actually getting into contract. The image above shows how many sellers are lagging behind the trend of the market and not quite in tune yet with the change that took place. The market has been very flat and has been softening over time, yet some sellers have tried to “test the market” at higher price levels (which hasn’t worked out too well for many).

7) It’s taking an average of 45 days to sell a house in Sacramento:

CDOM in Sacramento County - by Sacramento Appraisal Blog

It took 4 more days to sell a home last month compared to the previous month. When it starts taking longer to sell like this, it’s a sign of the market slowing down (as well as a normal seasonal trend). Remember that it was taking 90 days to sell a home just a few years ago. Generally speaking, the higher the price, the longer it is taking to sell. Take the properties under $100K with a grain of salt since there were fewer sales in that price segment.

months of housing inventory by sacramento appraisal blogRemember too that not every price range is experiencing the same trend, which is a powerful point to communicate to your clients. The image above shows how inventory is not the same at every price level. Inventory is still relatively low, and while it’s easier to get into contract than it was in early 2013, it’s still not easy in some price segments.

8) Distressed sales remain very low at around only 6% of the entire market:

REOs and Short Sales in Sacramento County

There were only 85 REO sales last month and 79 short sales in the entire county. So is it a good time to be an REO agent or short sale specialist? Both are still relevant avenues of business to a certain extent, but remember to let trends inform what type of business you pursue. Who might your clients be next year if the market continues to shift to a buyers’ market?

9) Interest rates declined over the past month:

interest rates by sacramento appraisal blog since 2008

Many experts thought interest rates would be hovering around 4.5 to 5.0 by the end of 2014, but it doesn’t seem like that’s going to happen. Of course only The Fed knows how things will unfold, but keep watching this trend since lower interest rates can end up pulling in buyers who are sitting on the fence (and thus lowering inventory and creating more pressure on values to increase). Ultimately at some point the real estate market needs to be more driven by the local job market, but for now it looks like a band-aid (temporary solution) of lower interest rates is bound to help fuel the market a bit more.

10) Other graphs for context:

context for median price since the real estate bubble by sacramento appraisal blog Median price and inventory since 2001 by sacramento appraisal blog Since the bubble burst by sacramento appraisal blogI hope this was helpful. I’d love to hear your take below.

Sharing Trends with your Clients? If you want to share graphs online or in your newsletter, please see my sharing policy. Thank you for sharing.

Questions: How else would you describe the market?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: home appraisers, house appraisers, Market Trends, real estate data, real estate graphs, Sacramento County Real Estate, Sacramento Real Estate, trend graphs

10 sentences to describe Sacramento’s regional housing market

October 16, 2014 By Ryan Lundquist Leave a Comment

Have you ever attended a presentation and thought, “Wow, there wasn’t any reason why that needed to be an hour. The speaker could have said everything in 15 minutes.” This is why speaking is an art form. It takes real skill and time to hone a presentation, yet still pack the same punch in a shorter amount of time. The same holds true for writing. Twice a month I have two big market posts, but today instead of writing paragraphs below each graph, I’m simply sharing an image and then one sentence. Here are 10 sentences to describe Sacramento’s regional housing market (and Placer County). Any thoughts? Enjoy.

GRAPHS

SACRAMENTO’S REGIONAL MARKET

1) The median price has been the same for 5 months in a row ($310,000).

median price and inventory in sacramento placer yolo el dorado county

2) Housing inventory increased last month to 2.72 months (inventory isn’t the same at every price level).

months of housing inventory in region by sacramento appraisal blog

3) It took an average of 45 days to sell a house last month.

days on market in placer sac el dorado yolo county by sacramento appraisal blog

4) Sales volume is down about 9% this year compared to last year.

SALES volume in sacramento region - by home appraiser blog

5) There have been 36% less cash sales in 2014 compared to last year.

cash sales and volume in sacramento region - by home appraiser blog

6) The number of listings increased again last month.

number of listings in Placer Sacramento Yolo El Dorado county - July 2014 - by home appraiser blog

PLACER COUNTY

7) The median price has been fairly flat in Placer County ($386K).

Placer County median price and inventory - by home appraiser blog

8) Inventory is hovering just below 3 months in Placer County.

Placer County housing inventory - by home appraiser blog

months of housing inventory in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog

9) It took an average of 47 days to sell a home last month in Placer County.

days on market in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog

10) Sales volume is at fairly normal levels in Placer County.

Placer County sales volume - by sacramento appraisal blog

wright-reportThe Wright Report: By the way, I contributed a few thoughts to The Wright Report, which is the most exhaustive local real estate report I know of. If you need some resourceful bathroom reading, I suggest downloading it. You can read it carefully or maybe take a quick stroll through the graphs. I’m honored to pitch in a few thoughts, but that’s not why I’m sharing it. I really like what Joel Wright puts together, and it’s a great service to the real estate community. When we understand the market and how it’s moving, it’s good for business and for our clients. Download and enjoy.

Sharing Trends with your Clients? If you want to share graphs online or in your newsletter, please see my sharing policy. Thank you for sharing.

Questions: Do you like the format for this post? I’d love to hear your feedback. How else would you describe the market?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: appraisals Sacramento, appraisers in Sacramento, FHA, Home Appraiser, House Appraiser, housing trends, inventory, less investors, Market Trends, Median Price, Real Estate Market in Sacramento, sacramento housing market

10 quick talking points for Sacramento’s housing market

July 15, 2014 By Ryan Lundquist 2 Comments

Imagine you’re in line at Starbucks with a friend, and your friend asks you about the housing market. How would you describe what the Sacramento market is doing? It’s easy to speak in generalities about it being a good time to buy or sell, but when you get more specific, something powerful happens. You begin to sound like a pro. Check out ten quick talking points to help explain how the market is unfolding.

Two ways to read this post:

  1. Scan the highlighted text and graphs quickly.
  2. Grab a cup of coffee and spend a few minutes digesting what is here.

free graphs from sacramento appraisal blog

1)  The median price has been flat for the past couple of months:

Median price and inventory since 2011 by sacramento appraisal blog

The market over these past six months has seen a normal seasonal uptick, but values have been flattening out a bit lately. Different neighborhoods are experiencing different dynamics of course, but the overall market is more or less flat. The median price in Sacramento County is currently $270,000.

2) The number of listings has increased since January:

Active listings in Sacramento County by sacramento appraisal blog

It’s normal in real estate to see listings increase during the Spring and beginning of Summer, but it’s still good to be able to explain that the number of active listings in Sacramento County was closer to 2200 in January and is now over 3000. This means buyers have more opportunities to get into contract.

3) Inventory increased again last month and is close to 2.2 months:

inventory in sacramento county - by sacramento appraisal blog

Housing inventory increased again this past month and is now at 2.16 months of housing supply. This means there is just over two months worth of houses listed for sale on the market compared to the number of sales last month.

months of housing inventory by sacramento appraisal blog

Keep in mind two months is still very low, which means there is still quite a bit of competition to get into contract. The graph above illustrates how much inventory is in each price segment, and there is clearly stiff competition below $400K. This underscores the reality that different price segments can experience different trends in the same market.

4) Sales volume is down 14% from last year:

sales volume in Sacramento County since 2008

sales volume in June in Sacramento County since 2008

Sales volume this past quarter is down 14% compared to the same time last year, but the good news is we’ve had three strong months of sales in a row. This is an especially welcome phenomenon after a couple dismal months in the beginning of the year. There were slightly more sales in June compared to May, but not really anything to write home about.

5) FHA buyers are gaining more power:

FHA sales in Sacramento County by sacramento appraisal blog

It has been much easier for FHA buyers to get into contract these days compared to the beginning of 2013 when it was incredibly difficult. In fact, FHA sales increased by 6.4% when comparing Q2 2013 to Q2 2014. If you haven’t brushed up on FHA minimum property requirements, it may be a good time to do so since FHA is becoming more relevant again.

6) Cash sales have declined by 13% since last year:

Cash sales since 2009 in Sacramento County by sacramento appraisal blog

FHA and cash sales since 2009 in Sacramento County by sacramento appraisal blog

Cash sales are down 13% county-wide compared to where they were one year ago (down 16% from their peak). There has been a dramatic decrease of cash in the Sacramento market, and it has really made the rest of the market adjust or “normalize” so to speak. What does it look like to be a market that is not driven by cash investors from outside of Sacramento? That’s what the housing market is trying to figure out.

cash sales and volume in sacramento county - by home appraiser blog

This graph shows cash sales from January to June in both 2013 and 2014. What do you notice? Cash volume was about two times higher (47%) in 2013 compared to 2014, whereas there have been more non-cash sales this year. When you’re talking to clients about how the market has changed, this is an X-factor. In other words, if cash volume was still as high as it was last year, inventory would be incredibly low, and the market would feel much like it did in early 2013.

7) It’s taking 35 days on average to sell a house:

CDOM in Sacramento County - by Sacramento Appraisal Blog

On average it’s taking just over one month (35 days) to sell a house in Sacramento County. This trend is about the same for the entire region (37 days), but I’ll get to that on Thursday. Generally speaking, the higher the price, the longer it takes to sell. Keep in mind there were only 12 sales between $750,000 to $1M, so don’t put too much weight in that category.

8) Interest rates are still flirting with the 4% range:

interest rates by sacramento appraisal blog since 2008 interest rates by sacramento appraisal blogInterest rates took another slight dip last month, but really rates have been flirting with the lower 4s all year. What happens with interest rates will directly impact affordability, which really matters since values are much higher than they used to be. The market still feels fragile, so if rates shoot up too quickly, it could be bad news for values. It’s doubtful The Fed would increase rates aggressively right now, but who knows.

9) Today’s market is simply different than the market in 2013:

layers of the market since 2011 sacramento county - by sacramento appraisal blog layers of the market sacramento county - by sacramento appraisal blog

The real estate market has many “layers” that impact value. The keys drivers for the latest real estate boom were cash investors, historically low interest rates, and incredibly low inventory. Now the “layers” of the market have shifted though where inventory is increasing, interest rates are no longer in the 3s, and cash investors have sincerely stepped back their game. This means we have a real estate market that is much more sensitive to the health and strength of the local economy instead of being driven by rates and out-of-town investors. Key factors to watch over the next two quarters are inventory, sales volume, and interest rates.

10) REO sales are ten times lower than what they used to be:

REOs and Short Sales in Sacramento County

REOs and Short Sales Percentage and Volume in Sacramento County

Sacramento County used to feel like Foreclosureville, but the market is simply no longer distressed. Both REO and short sales are hovering at about 7% of the market. This is very low considering in the first quarter of 2009 REO sales were literally ten times what they are now.

One Last Bonus Chart:

Q2 2013 and Q2 2014 comparison in Sacramento County

Summary: Our market was on fire for 18 months after values bottomed out in early 2012, but over the past year the market has really slowed, and is ultimately trying to figure out how to be normal again. The beginning of 2014 has shown a typical seasonal uptick, but overall the market feels as if it is cooling more than not since some properties are being priced at similar levels to the most recent sales (or slightly lower in some areas). The market is competitive because inventory is still low, but at the same time it is very price sensitive. Buyers are not biting on listings that are priced too high, and they are not willing to pay top dollar for outdated homes either. In a hot market buyers tend to look past some negatives when inventory is really tight, but that’s becoming less common now. By the way, I’ll share some Placer County and regional trends in a few days.

Sharing Trends with your Clients? If you want to share graphs online or in your newsletter, please see my sharing policy. Thank you for sharing.

Questions: How else would you describe the market? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: active listings, cash investors, FHA buyers, first-time buyers, foreclosures, Home Appraiser, House Appraiser, housing inventory, housing supply, interest rates, investment funds, less investors, Market Trends, Median Price, REO sales, Sacramento Real Estate Market, sales volume, Short Sales, trend graphs

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